Goodbye July, Hello August!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -2.41% (New High)
- Nasdaq 100: -2.19% (New High)
- Russel 2000: -4.12%
- Bitcoin: -3.73%
Last week was a rollercoaster on Wall Street. Stocks started strong, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh highs, boosted by optimism around big tech earnings and positive economic vibes. But everything flipped dramatically on Friday when a dismal jobs report showed only 73,000 new jobs were added in July, which was way below expectations. Adding fuel to the fire, new tariffs announced by the Trump administration rocked the market, slamming imports from Canada, Switzerland, Taiwan, and more. The result was a sharp sell-off: Dow dropped 1.6%, S&P 500 dipped 1.7%, and Nasdaq fell 2.2%.
Beyond the numbers, things got messy politically, too. The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was abruptly fired, and a Federal Reserve governor resigned amid controversy over political pressure related to economic data. Investors retreated to safety, causing bond yields and the dollar to tumble as everyone braced for uncertainty.
Looking ahead, expect another volatile week. Markets will closely watch fresh economic data, especially Q2 GDP inflation figures, manufacturing reports, and corporate earnings—particularly how companies navigate rising tariff costs. Tariffs officially kick in on August 7, and eyes will be on inflation pressures and whether the Fed hints at a possible rate cut in September. Buckle up, because trade headlines, economic data, and corporate forecasts could whip the markets around even more. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Aug 4th
Morning: Berkshire Hathaway
Evening: Palantir
Tuesday, Aug 6th
Morning: BP, Caterpillar & Pfizer
Evening: AMD, Lucid, Rivian, Snap & Supermicro
Wednesday, Aug 6th
Morning: McDonald's, Shopify, Uber & Walt Disney
Evening: Draft Kings
Thursday, Aug 7th
Morning: Hut 8 & Lilly
Evening: Pinterst & Take-Two Interactive
Friday, Aug 8th
Morning: Fubo TV & Wendy's
Market Events
Monday, Aug 4th
None
Tuesday, Aug 6th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Jul)
Wednesday, Aug 6th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Thursday, Aug 7th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
03:00 PM ET Consumer Credit (Jun)
Friday, Aug 8th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Aug 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.34
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Aug 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.54
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Aug 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.60
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Aug 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 1.36
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Aug 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 2.00
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 8 times (14 for 18 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~75%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 2 Trades
July Record: 53/60 Units
August Record: 6/6 Units
Monday, July 28th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $639 / $640) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $570 / $571) 🟢
Tuesday, July 29th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $639 / $640) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $573 / $574) 🟢
Wednesday, July 30th
No Signal -- FOMC Day
Thursday, July 31st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $634 / $633) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $567 / $566) 🔴
Friday, July 25th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $627 / $628) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $560 / $561) 🟢
Times Skynet Went Rouge
38 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
