The Fall From Grace
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -2.43%
- Nasdaq 100: -2.27%
- Russel 2000: -4.14%
- Bitcoin: -7.63%
Last week, the market started off strong, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs as traders piled back into AI and chip names. But by Friday, renewed U.S.–China tariff talk erased those gains, sending the S&P down about 2.4% and the Nasdaq 2.3% for the week. Defensive sectors held up best, while tech and growth stocks took the brunt of the sell-off. It was a brutal reminder that sentiment can flip fast when markets run hot.
With the government shutdown still dragging on, many key reports, like September’s jobs data, stayed offline, leaving traders without their usual macro compass. A few releases trickled through: August trade and credit data, the Fed’s September meeting minutes, and updates on housing, industrial production, and capacity. Friday’s early read on consumer sentiment came in slightly softer, adding to the sense of drift. With little fresh data, investors leaned on earnings chatter and headlines to guide positioning.
Friday was especially rough, with markets tumbling across the board after reports surfaced that the White House was weighing new tariffs on Chinese imports and tightening restrictions on tech exports. The sell-off was broad, megacap tech led declines, Treasury yields spiked, and oil prices slid on global growth worries. The VIX jumped back above 21 for the first time in weeks, signaling a clear return of short-term volatility and risk aversion.
Looking ahead to next week, the focus shifts back to inflation and spending with September’s CPI and retail sales reports due Tuesday, followed by the Fed’s Beige Book and Thursday’s PPI and Philly Fed releases. Big bank earnings also kick off, giving markets something real to trade on again after a week dominated by nerves and noise. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Oct 13th
None
Tuesday, Oct 14th
Morning: BlackRock, Citi, Goldman Sachs, J&J, JP Morgan & Wells Fargo
Wednesday, Oct 15th
Morning: ASML, Bank of America, Dollar Tree & Morgan Stanley
Evening: United
Thursday, Oct 16th
Morning: Charles Schwab & TSMC
Evening: Interactive Brokers
Friday, Oct 17th
Morning: American Express
Market Events
Monday, Oct 13th
None
Tuesday, Oct 14th
12:20 PM ET Fed Powell Speech
Wednesday, Oct 15th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Sep) (Maybe)
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, Oct 16th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Sep) (Maybe)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Sep) (Maybe)
08:30 AM ET Phiadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims (Maybe)
Friday, Oct 17th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (Sep) (Maybe)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) (Maybe)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Oct 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 1.52
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Oct 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 1.75
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Oct 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.23
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Oct 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 2.36
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Oct 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 0.66
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (10 for 10 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 5 Trade
October Record: 22/24 Units
Monday, Oct 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $669 / $668) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $605 / $604) 🟢
Tuesday, Oct 7th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Oct 8th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $669 / $668) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $605 / $604) 🟢
Thursday, Oct 9th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Oct 10th
No Signal Produced
Times A Trump Tweet Ruined My Trading Account
1 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
