Goodbye February, Hello March
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.44%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.21%
- Russel 2000: -1.33%
- Bitcoin: -3.12%
- Gold: +3.24%
- Silver: +10.75%
Last week, stocks were choppy with traders bouncing between AI optimism and renewed inflation nerves. By Friday, sellers were in control. The Dow dropped about 1.3% on the week, the Nasdaq fell roughly 1%, and the S&P 500 slipped around 0.4%. A hotter inflation read late in the week didn’t help, and you could feel positioning getting a little more cautious into the close.
The economic calendar wasn’t packed, but it packed a punch. Consumer confidence from the Conference Board improved slightly, showing households aren’t rolling over just yet. The bigger story came Friday with January PPI, which ran hotter than expected and reminded everyone that inflation is still sticky. A few other delayed data releases reinforced the same theme: growth is holding up, but price pressures are not fading as quickly as the market would like.
Looking ahead to next week, it's much more straightforward and potentially more market-moving. Monday brings ISM Manufacturing along with the final S&P Global manufacturing PMI. Midweek we get ISM Services and the final S&P services read. Thursday includes Productivity and Import and Export Prices. Then Friday is the main event with the February jobs report. No NYSE holidays, just a full week of trading and plenty of chances for volatility if the data surprises. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Mar 2nd
Morning: Berkshire Hathaway & Norwegian Cruise Line
Evening: Riot
Tuesday, Mar 3rd
Morning: Best Buy & Target
Evening: CrowdStrike & GitLab
Wednesday, Mar 4th
Morning: Abercrombie
Evening: Broadcom, Rigetti & WeBull
Thursday, Mar 5th
Morning: Kroger
Evening: Costco
Friday, Mar 6th
None
Market Events
Monday, Mar 2nd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Feb)
Tuesday, Mar 3rd
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Feb)
Wednesday, Mar 4th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Feb)
Thursday, Mar 5th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Mar 6th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Feb)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Mar 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.71
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Mar 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 39%
- Profit Factor: 0.58
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Mar 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 2.38
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Mar 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.30
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Mar 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.71
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 10 for 10 times (20 for 20 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 24 Trades
February Record: 70/74 Units
Monday, Feb 23rd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $690 / $691) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $608 / $609) 🟢
Tuesday, Feb 24th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $680 / $679) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $599 / $598) 🟢
Wednesday, Feb 25th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $689 / $688) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $611 / $610) 🟢
Thursday, Feb 26th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $694 / $695) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $616 / $17) 🟢
Friday, Feb 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $681 / $680) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $602 / $601) 🟢
Times Yelled At Me About My Lighting
11 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.50/ea and were bought back at $0.25/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $500!!!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and were bought back at $0.25/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $875!!!
