Markets Chop, Chop, Chop!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.70%
- Nasdaq 100: +2.46%
- Russel 2000: +3.71%
- Bitcoin: -5.77%
Last week, the stock market posted a modest recovery, with major indexes bouncing after tariff-spooked declines and banking jitters. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained ground, led by strength in tech and small-cap segments as investors brushed aside a thin data calendar and leaned into hopes for a smoother trade outlook. The fact that markets remained open on Monday despite the federal holiday helped keep trading normal, though volumes were lighter than usual.
On the economic and policy front the story was mostly about what wasn’t published. The ongoing federal government shutdown held back key releases such as the consumer-price index, retail sales and other big data points, leaving markets with just the anecdotal commentary and earnings cues. Market participants therefore leaned heavier on corporate results and central-bank commentary, with the Federal Reserve’s remarks and shutdown-related risks coming into sharper focus. Against this backdrop, rate-cut expectations remained alive but muted, since policymakers lack fresh hard numbers to act on.
Earnings season picked up extra significance in this environment. With the macro calendar essentially blank, company reports (especially from banks, tech names and industrials) became the centrepiece of investor attention. Those businesses that indicated stable demand, manageable input costs or successful cost discipline received a boost, while firms more cautious or conflicted drew sharper sell-offs. Overall the market held its ground and nudged higher despite elevated uncertainty and thinner than normal participation.
Looking ahead to next week, there are more tangible data releases. The Leading Economic Index will be released early in the week, followed by existing-home sales mid-week and the much-anticipated rescheduled September CPI data on Friday. These publications should give markets the firmer footing they’ve lacked and may force a more decisive move on the Fed’s policy path. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Oct 20th
Evening: Zions
Tuesday, Oct 21st
Morning: Cocal Cola, GE Aerospace, GM & Lockheed Martin
Evening: Capital One & Netflix
Wednesday, Oct 22nd
Morning: AT&T
Evening: IBM, Lam Research & Tesla
Thursday, Oct 23rd
Morning: American Airlines & Southwest
Evening: Intel
Friday, Oct 24th
Morning: P&G
Market Events
Monday, Oct 20th
10:00 AM ET US Leading Economic Indicators
Tuesday, Oct 21st
None
Wednesday, Oct 22nd
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, Oct 23rd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Sep)
Friday, Oct 24th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Sep)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Oct)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Sep)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Oct 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.22
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Oct 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 1.27
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Oct 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 1.60
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Oct 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 1.07
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Oct 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.20
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (10 for 10 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 11 Trade
October Record: 32/34 Units
Monday, Oct 13th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $659 / $658) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $597 / $596) 🟢
Tuesday, Oct 14th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $653 / $652) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $590 / $589) 🟢
Wednesday, Oct 15th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Oct 16th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $669 / $670) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $609 / $610) 🟢
Friday, Oct 17th
No Signal Produced
Count of Market Whipsaw
86,472 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
