Time To Be Bearish?!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.95%
- Nasdaq 100: -3.07%
- Russel 2000: -0.84%
- Bitcoin: -9.98%
Last week, the market spent time bouncing between AI-fueled excitement and tech-led panic. Monday opened weak as Nvidia and other mega-cap names dragged the major indexes lower. Midweek, strong earnings from Nvidia and Walmart provided a brief spark, but valuation worries quickly took over and sent tech sharply lower on Thursday. A small Friday rebound helped stabilize things, though the S&P and Nasdaq still finished the week in the red.
The macro calendar delivered plenty of noise thanks to the post-shutdown data backlog. Early in the week, regional manufacturing and homebuilder sentiment reminded traders that parts of the economy are still cooling. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes didn’t change the broader outlook, while Thursday’s jobless claims showed a labor market that’s slowly losing momentum. By Friday, a wave of delayed releases—payrolls, durable goods, inventories, personal income and spending, confidence surveys, and housing data—painted a mixed picture. Consumers are still spending, but overall sentiment remains shaky.
Looking ahead to next week, the schedule thins out but still has key checkpoints. Tuesday brings fresh readings on consumer confidence and business inventories. Wednesday packs the bigger punch with the next GDP estimate, the advance durable goods report, and the latest personal income and PCE inflation data. Markets close Thursday for Thanksgiving and shut early on Friday, so expect thin liquidity, and potentially outsized reactions if any midweek data surprises. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Nov 24th
Evening: Zoom
Tuesday, Nov 25th
Morning: Alibaba, Best Buy & NIO
Evening: Dell
Wednesday, Nov 26th
Morning: John Deere
Thursday, Nov 27th
None
Friday, Nov 28th
None
Market Events
Monday, Nov 24th
None
Tuesday, Nov 25th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Nov)
Wednesday, Nov 26th
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q3)
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders MoM & YoY (Sep)
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Nov)
10:00 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Sep)
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Sep)
Thursday, Nov 27th
ALL DAY Market Closed (Happy Thanksgiving!)
Friday, Nov 28th
01:00 PM ET Market Closes Early
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Nov 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 2.62
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Nov 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.89
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Nov 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 2.43
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Nov 27th)
- Market Closed All Day (Thanksgiving)
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Nov 28th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.75
- Bias: Neutral
- Market Half Day
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 0 for 0 times (0 for 0 total units) this past week. Volatility was too high for Piper to fire.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 13 Trades
November Record: 20/20 Units
Monday, Nov 17th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, Nov 18th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Nov 19th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Nov 20th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Nov 21st
No Signal Produced
Times I Almost Blew All of My Apex Accounts
1 (Very painful, but also very lucky) *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.70/ea and were bought back at $0.30/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $800!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
