New Highs!!!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.57% (New High)
- Nasdaq 100: +2.22%
- Russel 2000: +4.63% (New High)
- Bitcoin: +0.62%
Stocks came out swinging the first full week of the year. Last week, the major indexes pushed higher all week and wrapped things up near record levels, with small-caps stealing the spotlight. Bond yields bounced around but didn’t derail the rally, and the overall tone stayed comfortably risk-on as traders leaned into the “growth is slowing, but not breaking” narrative.
It was a busy stretch of data. ISM Manufacturing kicked things off Monday, followed by ISM Services and JOLTS midweek, which showed job openings continuing to cool. Weekly jobless claims stayed relatively steady, and Friday’s December jobs report landed right down the middle. Payroll growth was modest, the unemployment rate held at 4.4%, and consumer sentiment ticked slightly higher. Enough to keep soft-landing hopes alive without forcing the Fed’s hand.
Looking ahead to next week, the pressure on inflation and the consumer. CPI drops Tuesday, then Wednesday stacks Retail Sales, PPI, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Import and export prices follow Thursday, with more labor-market detail from BLS on Friday. No market holidays, no breaks — Just another week where rates, inflation data, and the consumer will decide how much fuel this rally really has. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Jan 12th
None
Tuesday, Jan 13th
Morning: Delta & JPMorgan
Wednesday, Jan 14th
Morning: Citi, Bank of America & Wells Fargo
Thursday, Jan 15th
Morning: BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & TSMC
Friday, Jan 16th
Morning: PNC
Market Events
Monday, Jan 12th
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Tuesday, Jan 13th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Dec)
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Oct)
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
Wednesday, Jan 14th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov)
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Dec)
Thursday, Jan 15th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Jan 16th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Jan 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 75%
- Profit Factor: 2.51
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Jan 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.92
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Jan 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.41
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Jan 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.57
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Jan 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 1.19
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 7 for 8 times (14 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~87.5%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trades
January Record: 18/20 Units
Monday, Jan 5th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $686 / $685) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $616 / $615) 🟢
Tuesday, Jan 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $687 / $686) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $618 / $617) 🟢
Wednesday, Jan 7th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $690 / $689) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $622 / $621) 🟢
Thursday, Jan 8th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Jan 9th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $689 / $688) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $619 / $618) 🟢
Times Chat Made Fun of Me
8 (very hurtful)*
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and were bought back at $0.10/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $750!
These PCS's were sold at $0.65/ea and were bought back at $0.20/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $675!
SPY Missed & QQQ Hit
These PCS's were sold at $0.46/ea and were bought back at $0.10/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $720!
