Tensions Boil Over
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -2.02%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.27%
- Russel 2000: -3.97%
- Bitcoin: +3.41%
- Gold: -2.17%
- Silver: -10.27%
Last week, markets were volatile as investors dealt with both economic data and rising geopolitical tensions. The week began with fallout from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which pushed energy markets higher and added uncertainty across global markets. Oil prices jumped on fears that the conflict could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude supply. The move higher in oil added another layer of inflation concern and helped pressure equities as the week went on.
Economic data early in the week showed parts of the U.S. economy still holding up. Manufacturing and services activity both remained in expansion territory, signaling that business activity is still relatively strong. That tone shifted later in the week after February’s jobs report showed payrolls unexpectedly declining while wage growth remained firm. The mix raised concerns that the labor market may be cooling at the same time higher energy prices could keep inflation sticky, which is not an ideal combination for markets.
Looking ahead, the coming week brings several important data releases. Monday starts with the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Wednesday will be the main event with the February CPI report, which will give markets the latest read on inflation. Thursday brings the January U.S. trade balance, and Friday wraps up with the University of Michigan’s preliminary March consumer sentiment report. With inflation data front and center and geopolitical tensions still elevated, it could be another headline driven week for markets. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Mar 9th
None
Tuesday, Mar 10th
Morning: NIO
Evening: Oracle
Wednesday, Mar 11th
Morning: Campbell's
Thursday, Mar 12th
Morning: Dollar General
Evening: Adobe & ULTA Beauty
Friday, Mar 13th
None
Market Events
Monday, Mar 9th
None
Tuesday, Mar 10th
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales
Wednesday, Mar 11th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Feb)
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Thursday, Mar 12th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
Friday, Mar 13th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Jan)
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q3)
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods MoM & YoY (Jan)
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Mar 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.22
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Mar 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 2.12
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Mar 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 0.48
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Mar 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 0.46
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Mar 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 2.27
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 6 times (10 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~66%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 2 Trades
March Record: 10/14 Units
Monday, Mar 2nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $678 / $677) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $598 / $597) 🟢
Tuesday, Mar 3rd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $678 / $679) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $600 / $601) 🔴
Wednesday, Mar 4th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $679 / $678) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $603 / $602) 🟢
Thursday, Mar 5th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Mar 6th
No Signal Produced
Maple Syrup Consumed In Canada
2 liters*
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.70/ea and were bought back at $0.10/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
