Chasin' Gains
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.60%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.06%
- Russel 2000: -1.88%
- Bitcoin: +4.16%
- Gold: -3.05%
- Silver: -4.78%
Stocks had a choppy week as traders bounced between cooling inflation data and renewed macro worries. Early in the week, rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions pushed markets lower, and the mood stayed cautious even after some economic data came in softer than expected. By Friday’s close, the S&P 500 and Dow both finished the week modestly lower while the Nasdaq held up slightly better, as investors continued trying to balance slowing inflation with uncertainty around growth and energy prices.
The biggest data point came Wednesday with the February CPI report, which showed headline inflation holding steady year over year and core inflation also largely unchanged. The numbers suggested price pressures are easing gradually but still not fully back to the Fed’s comfort zone. Later in the week, January housing starts surprised to the upside while trade data showed the U.S. deficit narrowing slightly. Friday added another mix of signals with an updated estimate of fourth quarter GDP showing slower growth and the January PCE report indicating inflation is still running a bit above the Fed’s target.
Looking ahead to next week, the focus shifts squarely to the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s two day policy meeting runs Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. Outside of the Fed, the calendar includes the NAHB Housing Market Index and Industrial Production on Monday, housing related data on Tuesday, PPI midweek, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey on Thursday. With inflation still sticky and markets sensitive to any shift in policy expectations, it could be another volatile week for traders. As always, respect your risk and stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Mar 16th
Morning: Dollar Tree
Tuesday, Mar 17th
Evening: DocuSign, Lululemon & Oklo
Wednesday, Mar 18th
Morning: Macy's & Tencent
Evening: Micron
Thursday, Mar 19th
Morning: Alibaba
Evening: FedEx
Friday, Mar 20th
None
Market Events
Monday, Mar 16th
None
Tuesday, Mar 17th
None
Wednesday, Mar 18th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Feb)
02:00 PM ET Fed Interest Rate Decision
02:30 PM ET Chair Powell Press Conference
Thursday, Mar 19th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Jan)
Friday, Mar 20th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Mar 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 1.06
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Mar 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 3.72
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Mar 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.36
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Mar 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.22
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Mar 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.71
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (12 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 8 Trades
March Record: 22/26 Units
Monday, Mar 9th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, Mar 10th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $674 / $673) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $605 / $604) 🟢
Wednesday, Mar 11th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $680 / $681) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $613 / $614) 🟢
Thursday, Mar 12th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Mar 13th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $673 / $674) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $604 / $605) 🟢
Lungs Coughed Up
2 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
