You Stay Classy, Record Highs!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.55%
- Nasdaq 100: +2.37%
- Russel 2000: +0.29%
- Bitcoin: +0.47%
Last week, tech stocks grabbed the wheel and didn’t really let go. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed into fresh record highs by Friday, fueled by continued strength in semis and AI names. It wasn’t a broad melt-up though. The Dow lagged a bit, so this felt more like targeted buying than a full-on risk-on frenzy. Still, the tone was undeniably bullish. Every dip kept getting bought and momentum traders had a field day.
On the macro side, things looked steady but not exactly calm. Jobless claims stayed relatively low, which keeps the labor market story intact, while the S&P Global flash PMI showed the economy still expanding but with some underlying inflation pressure creeping back in. That inflation angle tied into geopolitics as well. There were fresh headlines around U.S. sanctions connected to Iranian oil and ongoing tension in the region, which kept energy markets on edge. Trump also stayed in the mix with continued rhetoric tied to foreign policy and trade, which the market is clearly starting to pay more attention to again as election season heats up.
Looking ahead to next week, the calendar is stacked with events that can actually move things. Consumer Confidence hits Tuesday, then all eyes shift to the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Thursday is the big macro day with Q1 GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, along with personal income and spending data. Durable goods and housing data also land midweek. Then Friday wraps it up with ISM Manufacturing. No market holidays, so it is a full week of potential catalysts. After a run to new highs, this is the kind of setup where volatility can easily creep back in if anything comes in off script.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Apr 27th
Morning: Verizon
Tuesday, Apr 28th
Morning: Coca Cola, GM, Spotify & UPS
Evening: Robinhood & Visa
Wednesday, Apr 29th
Morning: SoFi
Evening: Alphabet, Amazon, Chipotle, Meta, Microsoft & Qualcomm
Thursday, Apr 30th
Morning: Caterpillar, Lilly & Mastercard
Evening: Apple & Reddit
Friday, May 1st
Morning: Chevron, Exxon Mobile & Moderna
Market Events
Monday, Apr 27th
None
Tuesday, Apr 28th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Apr)
Wednesday, Apr 29th
10:00 AM ET Durable Goods MoM & YoY (Mar)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET Fed Interest Rate Decision
02:30 PM ET FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, Apr 30th
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q1)
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Mar)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Apr)
Friday, May 1st
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Apr)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Apr 27th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 2.07
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Apr 28th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.10
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Apr 29th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 41%
- Profit Factor: 0.46
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Apr 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 75%
- Profit Factor: 0.84
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 1.55
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 8 times (10 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~75%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 0 Trades
April Record: 34/46 Units
Monday, Apr 20th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $711 / $712) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $650 / $651) 🟢
Tuesday, Apr 21st
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $712 / $713) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $651 / $652) 🟢
Wednesday, Apr 22nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $707 / $706) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $648 / $647) 🟢
Thursday, Apr 23rd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $709 / $708) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $652 / $651) 🔴
Friday, Apr 24th
No Signal Produced
Tilt Count
1 (Low, but it was really bad)*
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both missed :(
These PCS's were sold at $6.40/ea and were bought back at $6.00/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,600!!!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.70/ea and were bought back at $0.20/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,250!!!
