Highs, Highs & More Highs!!!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +4.54%
- Nasdaq 100: +6.20%
- Russel 2000: +5.36%
- Bitcoin: +5.62%
Last week, stocks didn’t just drift higher, they ripped to fresh record highs and did it on the back of earnings, not just macro relief. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed into new territory as big bank earnings came in stronger than feared and reminded everyone that the financial system isn’t exactly cracking. Add in Netflix doing what it tends to do which is beat expectations and flex pricing power, and you had a legit reason for momentum. Sprinkle in the Iran situation cooling off and Trump signaling things might be wrapping up, and traders had every excuse they needed to keep pressing risk.
Under the hood, the data was more “good enough” than great, but in this market that’s all it takes. Housing stayed soft with existing home sales slipping again, while import prices ticked higher thanks in part to energy volatility earlier in the week. The Fed’s Beige Book basically said the economy is still growing but businesses are cautious, which is code for “we’re fine but not confident.” Jobless claims stayed low, keeping the labor story intact, even as industrial production dipped a bit. None of it was strong enough to justify record highs on its own, but paired with solid earnings and positioning, it didn’t need to be.
Looking ahead to next week, the market will test whether this move higher has legs. Retail sales on Tuesday is the main event and will tell you if the consumer is still doing the heavy lifting. You’ll also get business inventories and pending home sales that same day. Thursday brings jobless claims again plus flash PMI data, which should give a quick read on April activity. No Fed meeting to distract anyone, so it’s a clean setup. If the consumer shows up and PMIs hold, bulls probably stay in control. If not, you might finally see some pushback after a week where everything just worked. Don't forget to monitor any news related to Trump and Iran. As always, respect your risk and stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Apr 20th
Evening: Alaska Airlines
Tuesday, Apr 21st
Morning: GE Aerospace, RTX & UnitedHealth Group
Evening: Capital One & United Airlines
Wednesday, Apr 22nd
Morning: Boeing
Evening: IBM, Southwest Airlines & Tesla
Thursday, Apr 23rd
Morning: American Express
Evening: Intel
Friday, Apr 24th
Morning: P&G
Market Events
Monday, Apr 20th
None
Tuesday, Apr 21st
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Mar)
Wednesday, Apr 22nd
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, Apr 23rd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Apr)
Friday, Apr 24th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Apr)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Apr 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.45
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Apr 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.56
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Apr 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 1.30
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Apr 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.89
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Apr 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.13
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (14 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 8 Trades
April Record: 24/32 Units
Monday, Apr 13th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $676 / $675) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $608 / $607) 🟢
Tuesday, Apr 14th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Apr 15th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $693 / $692) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $627 / $626) 🟢
Thursday, Apr 16th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $697 / $696) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $634 / $633) 🟢
Friday, Apr 17th
No Signal Produced
Trump Iran Market Whipsaw
17,882 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $1.40/ea and were bought back at $0.90/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,000!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
