Goodbye April, Hello May!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.91%
- Nasdaq 100: +1.45%
- Russel 2000: +0.77%
- Bitcoin: +1.00%
Last week, stocks kept the momentum going. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to fresh highs as earnings season picked up steam. Big Tech did most of the heavy lifting, with Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft driving the tone as AI demand stayed front and center. Some reports were clean wins, others reminded everyone how expensive this AI buildout is getting, but overall buyers stayed in control. Energy was a bit choppier, with Exxon and Chevron in focus as oil moved around on geopolitical headlines.
On the macro side, it was a mixed bag that didn’t really slow things down. Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%, March PCE inflation ran hotter at 3.5% year over year, and ISM Manufacturing stayed in expansion at 52.7. The Fed held rates steady, but the messaging wasn’t exactly unified, which keeps some uncertainty in the mix. Headlines also stayed active, with Trump floating a 25% tariff on EU autos and Iran tensions continuing to keep pressure on oil and inflation expectations.
Looking ahead to next week, the calendar is loaded. No holiday, full five-day stretch. You’ve got factory orders Monday, ISM Services and trade balance Tuesday, productivity and unit labor costs Thursday, and the April jobs report Friday. Earnings are still a big driver too, with names like Palantir, AMD, PayPal, Pfizer, Shopify, Pinterest, Datadog, HubSpot, Cloudflare, and Arm reporting. The setup is pretty clear: the rally can keep going, but it’ll need strong earnings to offset sticky inflation, Fed uncertainty, tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical risk. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, May 4th
Morning: Berkshire Hathaway
Evening: Palantir & Pinterest
Tuesday, May 5th
Morning: PayPal, Pfizer & Shopify
Evening: AMC, AMD & Strategy
Wednesday, May 6th
Morning: CVS, Disney, Hut8, Novo Nordisk & Uber
Evening: ARM & Snap
Thursday, May 7th
Morning: McDonald's
Evening: Affirm, Coinbase & Iren
Friday, May 8th
Morning: Wendy's
Market Events
Monday, May 4th
None
Tuesday, May 5th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Mar)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Apr)
Wednesday, May 6th
10:00 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, May 7th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, May 8th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Change (Apr)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, May 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.64
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, May 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.53
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, May 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.50
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, May 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 2.13
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 1.23
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 6 times (12 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~66%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 4 Trades
April Record: 34/46 Units
May Record: 0/0 Units
Monday, Apr 27th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $715 / $716) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $664 / $665) 🔴
Tuesday, Apr 28th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $713 / $714) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $660 / $661) 🟢
Wednesday, Apr 29th
No Signal Produced -- FOMC
Thursday, Apr 30th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $709 / $708) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $657 / $656) 🟢
Friday, May 1st
No Signal Produced
Fish Head Accusations
1 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
