Down But Not Out
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -2.59%
- Nasdaq 100: -4.53%
- Russel 2000: -3.41%
- Bitcoin: -16.81%
Last week, the market finally hit an air pocket. The S&P 500 dropped 2.6%, snapping a nine-week winning streak, while the Nasdaq got hit even harder with a 4.7% weekly slide as AI, chips, and high-multiple tech names came under pressure. Bitcoin was even uglier, falling roughly 15% to 18% on the week and briefly dipping below $60,000, as risk appetite faded fast.
The big spark was Friday’s May jobs report, which came in much hotter than expected with 172,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.3%. That pushed Treasury yields higher and revived the “higher for longer” trade, which is exactly what crowded tech longs did not want to see. Earlier in the week, ISM manufacturing and services, JOLTS, ADP, construction spending, productivity, and factory orders all added to the picture of an economy that still has momentum, but also inflation pressure. Earnings added fuel too, with Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Lululemon, Dollar General, Ciena, HPE, and Rubrik among the key names in focus. Trump and Iran also stayed in the background as a market concern, with Iran-related headlines continuing to feed worries about oil, inflation, and global risk.
Looking ahead to next week, the main event is inflation. CPI and real earnings hit Wednesday, PPI follows Thursday, and BLS employer cost data lands Friday. Tuesday also brings April U.S. trade data from the BEA, the annual trade update, and NFIB small business optimism, while Friday includes the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. No FOMC decision is scheduled next week, but these inflation and sentiment numbers will matter a lot after Friday’s hot jobs report put rate-hike risk back on the table. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, June 8th
Morning: Campbell's
Tuesday, June 9th
Evening: Cracker Barrel
Wednesday, June 10th
Morning: Chewy
Evening: Oracle
Thursday, June 11th
Evening: Adobe
Friday, June 12th
None
Market Events
Monday, June 8th
None
Tuesday, June 9th
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (May)
Wednesday, June 10th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (May)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Thursday, June 11th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (May)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, June 12th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (June)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, June 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.44
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, June 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.40
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, June 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 39%
- Profit Factor: 0.64
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, June 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 0.44
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, June 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.79
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (12 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 25 Trades
June Record: 12/12 Units
Monday, June 1st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $753 / $752) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $734 / $733) 🟢
Tuesday, June 2nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $756 / $755) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $738 / $737) 🟢
Wednesday, May 3rd
No Signal Produced
Thursday, May 4th
No Signal Produced
Friday, May 5th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $753 / $754) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $733 / $734) 🟢
New Dad Brain Functioning Capcaity
12% *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
