Prepare For Takeoff
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.49%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.43%
- Russel 2000: -1.39%
- Bitcoin: -0.62%
Lasy week, the markets ended with a mixed tone. SPX gained about 0.5% and NDX added roughly 0.4%, while RTY fell around 1.5%. Economic data was a little less encouraging. Consumer confidence slipped, Q2 GDP held at a 1.5% annualized pace, and PCE inflation remained elevated with headline inflation at 3.7% and core at 3.3%. That kept the focus on the Fed, with Kevin Warsh using Jackson Hole to reinforce that inflation is still the main concern and rate cuts are far from guaranteed.
Nvidia was the big corporate story, reporting another huge quarter with revenue up more than 100% from last year and Data Center sales continuing to surge. Salesforce also popped after a strong report and higher guidance, while CrowdStrike delivered solid results of its own. Geopolitics stayed in focus as Trump continued increasing economic pressure on Iran, with new Treasury actions targeting Iranian financial activity and negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved.
Looking ahead to next week, it's action packed. Tuesday brings manufacturing PMIs, JOLTS and construction spending. Wednesday has ADP employment, the Fed’s Beige Book and Broadcom earnings. Thursday brings productivity, trade data and services PMIs. Friday is the big one with the August jobs report, unemployment and wage growth. Dell also reports Tuesday. The NYSE is open all week, with Labor Day falling the following Monday. After another sticky inflation reading, the labor data should be the biggest driver of rate expectations and the next move for SPX, NDX and RTY. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, August 31st
None
Tuesday, September 1st
Morning: NIO
Evening: Dell & Palo Alto
Wednesday, September 2nd
Morning: Broadcom & Snowflake
Thursday, September 4th
None
Friday, Septmber 5th
None
Market Events
Monday, August 31st
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Aug)
Tuesday, September 1st
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacutring PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Prices & PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)
Wednesday, September 2nd
08:30 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET Fed Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, September 4th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices & PMI (Aug)
Friday, Septmber 5th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Aug)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, August 31st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.71
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, September 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.59
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, September 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.23
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, September 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 41%
- Profit Factor: 0.77
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, September 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 45%
- Profit Factor: 0.69
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (14 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 31 Trades
August Record: 54/54 Units
Monday, Aug. 24th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, Aug. 25th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $762 / $761) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $706 / $705) 🟢
Wednesday, Aug. 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $764 / $763) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $707 / $706) 🟢
Thursday, Aug. 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $767 / $766) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $714 / $713) 🟢
Friday, Aug. 28th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $777 / $778) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $725 / $726) 🟢
Lakes Renamed By President Trump
1*
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
