Goodbye September
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.21%
- Nasdaq 100: +3.24%
- Russel 2000: -0.58%
- Bitcoin: +4.02%
Stocks had a solid but choppy week as AI strength helped offset rising yields and inflation concerns. The SPX gained about 1.2%, the NDX jumped roughly 3.2% to fresh highs, while the RTY slipped around 0.6%. AI stayed in control of the tape, with Meta, AMD and Microsoft among the bigger stories, while higher Treasury yields created some pressure midweek.
The economy still looks mixed. Jobless claims stayed low, new-home sales came in strong, and business activity remained healthy, but consumer sentiment weakened and inflation expectations moved higher. Trump also said a broader deal with Iran may not come until after the midterms, while Iran floated a conditional path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear talks. That kept oil volatile throughout the week.
Looking ahead to next week, things are much busier. Tuesday brings JOLTS and Consumer Confidence, Wednesday has GDP, personal spending and PCE inflation, Thursday brings ISM Manufacturing, and Friday wraps things up with the September jobs report, unemployment and wage growth. Earnings are lighter, but Carnival, Micron, Accenture and Nike are all on deck. With PCE, ISM and payrolls packed into a few days, the market should get a much clearer read on growth, inflation and what the Fed does next. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Market Events
Monday, September 28th
None
Tuesday, September 29th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Sep)
10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
Wednesday, September 30th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Sep)
09:15 AM ET Chicago PMI (Sep)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, October 1st
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Sep)
Friday, October 2nd
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, September 28th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 1.69
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, September 29th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 42%
- Profit Factor: 0.45
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, September 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 45%
- Profit Factor: 0.67
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, October 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 1.41
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, October 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 45%
- Profit Factor: 0.70
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 6 times (14 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~83%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 1 Trade
September Record: 32/36 Units
Monday, Sept. 21st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $766 / $765) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $727 / $726) 🟢
Tuesday, Sept. 22nd
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Sept. 23rd
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $774 / $775) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $748 / $749) 🟢
Thursday, Sept. 24th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Sept. 25th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $771 / $772) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $746 / $747) 🟢
Times I Wanted To Quit Trading
39,402 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY missed & QQQ hit
These PCS's were sold at $0.50/ea and were bought back at $0.20/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $750!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.50/ea and were bought back at $0.20/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $750!!!
