A Bearish Start To The Year
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.20%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.20%
- Russel 2000: -3.39%
- Bitcoin: -3.50%
Last week, stocks entered a new phase of notable volatility. Early in the week, semiconductor stocks rallied, buoyed by strong revenue reports from companies like Foxconn, which benefited from increased demand for AI technologies. This uplift was also assisted by NVDA crushing it at the CES conference and tagging a new all-time high.
However, by the end of the week, the tune had changed. The market reversed course following a robust employment report indicating that U.S. employers hired more workers than anticipated. This development raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures, leading to fears that the Federal Reserve might maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Consequently, all major indices declined by approximately 1.5% on Friday.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, January 13th
None
Tuesday, January 14th
None
Wednesday, January 15th
Morning: Citi, BlackRock, JPMorgan & Wells Fargo
Thursday, January 16th
Morning: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, TSMC & UnitedHealth Group
Friday, January 17th
Morning: SLB
Market Events
Monday, January 13th
None
Tuesday, January 14th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Dec)
10:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed President Schmid Speaks
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Wednesday, January 15th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, January 16th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
Friday, January 17th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, January 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 72%
- Profit Factor: 1.62
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, January 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.90
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, January 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.75
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, January 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.69
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, January 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.51
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 7 for 8 times (14 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~87.5%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trades
January Record: 24/26 Units
Monday, January 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $595 / $594) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $523 / $522) 🟢
Tuesday, January 7th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $598 / $599) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $526 / $527) 🟢
Wednesday, January 8th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $589 / $590) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $517 / $518) 🟢
Thursday, January 9th
No Signal(s) -- Market Closed
Friday, January 10th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $586 / $587) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $512 / $513) 🟢
Days of Dry January Survived
12 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these missed :(
This was a trash trade -- My realized loss was $13,050.
This was also a trash trade -- My realized loss was $2,600.
This, too, was a trash trade, but it made money -- MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,250!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These wasn't much thought or reason behind this trade. I felt left out after missing the Piper entry, so I got into this position to join the party (not smart). These CCS's were sold at $0.70/ea and they expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,400!
After trading for no reason with Trade One, I was forced into Trade Two to protect my account. This is another example of how trading without a system/reason commonly leads to issues. These CCS's were sold at $0.95/ea and they expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,850!
