Matt Kohrs
News • Business • Investing & Finance
Bears Got Trapped || Issue 2
"A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends."
March 02, 2023
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Well, golly...

What a day, what a day! For those of you who missed it, the premarket action was looking horrifically bearish across the entire market. I didn't find this too surprising. Inflation is high, yields are rising and the dollar is showing strength. In my mind, this all adds up the market being under considerable pressure. However, the bulls were not messing around today. They were late getting out of bed, but they fought like a mother fucker. Tons of bullish engulfing candles (start below the previous low and end above the previous high) were created throughout the entire market. Based on this technical development and the seasonality (posted below), I would wager tomorrow will statistically favor the bulls.

 

Seasonality Update

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 3rd)

  • Trades (Years Tested): 25
  • Bull Win Percentage: 68%
  • Profit Factor: 2.64
  • Bias: Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 


Current Account Value

$10,600.14 (Daily +1.10% [+$115.91] & YTD +6.33% [+$613.40])


 

Closed Position(s) +$324

COIN $85/$90 CCS (5) March 17th 

  • Original Credit: $0.55/ea
  • Closed Debit: $0.18/ea
  • P&L: +$185 (+67.3%)

 

TSLA $215/$216.67 CCS (2) March 17th 

  • Original Credit: $0.50/ea
  • Closed Debit: $0.23/ea
  • P&L: +$54 (+54%)

 

TSLA #2 $230/$231.67 CCS (5) March 17th

  • Original Credit: $0.27/ea
  • Closed Debit: $0.10/ea
  • P&L: +$85 (+63%)

 

New Position(s)

COIN Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th

  • Sold: $72 & Bought: $77 --> Credit: $0.50/ea
  • Max Return: $50/ea & Max Risk: $250/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.20/ea
  • Profit Odds: 75%

Reasoning: COIN took a large hit early in the morning because of the developments with SI. From a technical perspective, COIN has been range bound since early February. Overall, Crypto ran recently and now seems to be cooling off.


 

TSLA Call Credit Spread (5) March 31st

  • Sold: $220 & Bought: $222.50 --> Credit: $0.37/ea
  • Max Return: $37/ea & Max Risk: $213/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.15/ea
  • Profit Odds: 88%

Reasoning: TSLA had a lackluster "Investor Day". Additionally, the overall market doesn't seem to bullish imo. It's tough to see TSLA continuing it's +100% run at this moment in time.


 

Current Position(s)

NFLX Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th

  • Sold: $347.50 & Bought: $350 --> Credit: $0.38/ea
  • Max Return: $38/ea & Max Risk: $212/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.15/ea
  • Profit Odds: 92%


 

META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th

  • Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $0.33/ea
  • Max Return: $33/ea & Max Risk: $217/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.15/ea
  • Profit Odds: 87%


 

SPY Call Credit Spread (3) March 17th

  • Sold: $409 & Bought: $412 --> Credit: $0.56/ea
  • Max Return: $56/ea & Max Risk: $244/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.25/ea
  • Profit Odds: 79%


 

QQQ Call Credit Spread (5) March 24th

  • Sold: $313 & Bought: $315 --> Credit: $0.38/ea
  • Max Return: $38/ea & Max Risk: $162/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.15/ea
  • Profit Odds: 88%


 

SPY #2 Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st

  • Sold: $415 & Bought: $417 --> Credit: $0.42/ea
  • Max Return: $42/ea & Max Risk: $158/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.20/ea
  • Profit Odds: 83%


 

TSLA Call Credit Spread (3) March 31th

  • Sold: $245 & Bought: $250 --> Credit: $0.70/ea
  • Max Return: $70/ea & Max Risk: $430/ea
  • Profit Target: $0.20/ea
  • Profit Odds: 94%


 

Overall, I'm happy with today. I made money -- I'm the best trader on this side of the Mississippi. I wish I closed my QQQ & TSLA puts today (not detailed in this newsletter). I truly didn't expect the bullish recovery to be as strong as it was. The seasonlity tomorrow favors the bulls, so I might be in for a bit more pain. This truly reinforces the concept that I should simply stop doing stupid shit, aka speculating. High odds plays are the way to go. Defined math == Defined results. I need to talk myself into sticking to selling premium and my future's robot (+$64 today). If you have any questions or comments, don't hesitate to reach out to me.

 

Thanks for reading! I appreciate all you beautiful bastards.

 

Notes

Max Return (Credit Spreads): The credit recieved when creating the positon. This is achieved when you get to the expiration date and the price is below the sold contract for a Call Credit Spread and above the sold contract for a Put Credit Spread.

Max Risk (Credit Spreads): The difference between the spread's two strikes minus the credit recieved when the position was created.

Breakeven (Credit Spreads): The sold strike plus the credit for CCS and the strike minus the credit for PCS.

 

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

 

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The team at SpotGamma will be joining the MK Show to discuss various options trading strategies. (Yes, it will include 0 DTEs for you degens).

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Explosive Gains || Goonie Newsletter
Goonie Newsletter (July 7th - July 11th)

Explosive Gains

Hey,

Key Weekly Performance Stats:

  • S&P 500: +1.72%
  • Nasdaq 100: +1.61% 
  • Russel 2000: +2.14%
  • Bitcoin: +0.85%

Last week, the stock market exploded higher during the shortened trading week. Stocks surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh record highs multiple times. The Dow wasn’t far behind either—climbing 276 points on Monday and keeping that momentum going. The fuel behind the rally? A wave of optimism around trade deals—especially after Canada scrapped its digital services tax, reopening the door for negotiations with the U.S.

The fireworks weren’t just in the sky this week. On July 3, the June jobs report dropped and brought some heat: the U.S. added 147,000 jobs (beating expectation), and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. But it wasn’t all straightforward. The ADP report told a different story, showing a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs. Government hiring, especially at the state and local level (up 80,000), helped balance the scales. Even with mixed signals, investors liked what they saw. The bull camp cheered the resilience.

Looking ahead, investors are likely to focus on the July 9 deadline for US tariffs, which could increase rates on imports if no trade deals are secured, potentially causing market volatility. The July Investment Manager Index, expected to provide insights into equity market expectations and sector preferences, will also be closely watched. Additionally, updates on ongoing trade negotiations, especially with Canada, and other economic data releases are anticipated to influence market direction. As always, stick to your trading plan and repest your risk. Godspeed.

 
Best,

Thicc Kohrs

P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)

 


 

Market Events

Monday, July 7th

None Scheduled

 

Tuesday, July 8th

03:00 PM ET    Consumer Credit 

 

Wednesday, July 9th

01:00 PM ET    10-Year Note Auction

02:00 PM ET    FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Thursday, July 10th

08:30 AM ET    Initial Jobless Claims

01:00 PM ET    30-Year Bond Auction

 

Friday, July 11th

None Scheduled

 


 

Seasonality Update

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, July 7th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 59%
  • Profit Factor: 2.55
  • Bias: Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, July 8th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 59%
  • Profit Factor: 1.15
  • Bias: Neutral

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 9th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 67%
  • Profit Factor: 1.02
  • Bias: Neutral

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 10th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 56%
  • Profit Factor: 1.55
  • Bias: Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 11th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 74%
  • Profit Factor: 1.63
  • Bias: Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.


 

Options Strategy Update

The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 6 times (9 for 10 total units) this past week.

Signal Accuracy: ~83%

Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!

 

Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trade

June Record: 52/60 Units

July Record: 7/8 Units

 

Monday, June 30th

SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $614 / $613) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $547 / $546) 🟢

 

Tuesday, July 1st

SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $615 / $614) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $548 / $547) 🔴

 

Wednesday, July 2nd

SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $616 / $615) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $545 / $544) 🟢

 

Thursday, July 3rd

No Signal: Market Half Day (Independence Day)

 

Friday, July 4th

No Signal: Market Closed (Independence Day)

 


 

Hugo Spritzes Consumed

All of them *

* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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Daily Degen Trade Report (+$600) || Gains, Gains & More Gains
Wednesday, July 2nd

Market Fireworks!

THICC RETURN: +$600

My posted, REAL-TIME TRADES DOMINATED -- Today's trades would have paid for AN ENTIRE YEAR OF GOONIE MEMBERSHIP!

If you're curious about what I trade & how I trade, join the Goonie Trading Discord. You can be a premium member for 1 month free of charge. It's a riskless opportunity for you to become a Goonie today!

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 

Piper's Picks

PIPER'S RETURN: +$51 (+100%)

A BULLISH signal, 5/5 strength, was generated around 11:30am ET by Piper. The signal was used with various advanced options strategies to score (don't worry, I'll teach you every aspect of the strategy).Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!

SPY Return: +$30 (+100%) per $270 signal capital requirement

QQQ Return: +$21 (+100%) per $279 signal capital requirement

Total Return: +$51 (+100%) per $549 signal capital requirement

 

Thicc Matt's Personal Trades

Trade One: 10 SPX 6,190/6,185 Put Credit Spreads (Piper Signal)These PCS's were sold at $0.90/ea and expired worthless  -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $600!

 

Trade One Return: +$600

Total Return: +$600 (before fees)

 

These trades alone would have paid for AN ENTIRE YEAR OF GOONIE DISCORD ACCESS! 

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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Daily Degen Trade Report (+$600) || GAINS!!!
Tuesday, July 1st

Hello, July!

THICC RETURN: +$600

My posted, REAL-TIME TRADES PAID -- Today's trades would have paid for AN ENTIRE YEAR OF GOONIE MEMBERSHIP!

If you're curious about what I trade & how I trade, join the Goonie Trading Discord. You can be a premium member for 1 month free of charge. It's a riskless opportunity for you to become a Goonie today!

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 

Piper's Picks

PIPER'S RETURN: -$77

A BULLISH signal, 3/5 strength, was generated around 10:15am ET by Piper. The signal was used with various advanced options strategies to score (don't worry, I'll teach you every aspect of the strategy).SPY hit & QQQ missed

SPY Return: +$10 (+100%) per $90 signal capital requirement

QQQ Return: -$87 per $87 signal capital requirement

Total Return: -$77 per $177 signal capital requirement

 

Thicc Matt's Personal Trades

Trade One: 12 SPX 6,177/6,170 Put Credit Spreads (Piper Signal)These PCS's were sold at $0.50/ea and expired worthless  -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $600!

 

Trade One Return: +$600

Total Return: +$600 (before fees)

 

These trades alone would have paid for AN ENTIRE YEAR OF GOONIE DISCORD ACCESS! 

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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