D-Day Insanity
The bears took no prisoners!
Today's reports were a mixed bag. The Unemployment Rate went up (3.6% vs 3.4%; bullish), but more jobs were added than expected (311k vs 225k; bearish). This situation ended up favoring the bears because there is an incredible amount of stress on the banking sector. SVB, a top 20 bank, got murked:
"U.S. bank regulators seize Silicon Valley Bank in largest bank failure since the Great Recession"
On top of this truly wild development, the seasonality of today clearly favored the bears. I hope you got a piece of the action. I have been positioned for this event for a couple weeks now and was finally able to lock in a pretty penny -- All trade details (new, closed & current) are below.
There are major things coming on the horizon. I’ll fully explain everything I’m watching at conclusion of this newsletter.
Market Events: March 13th
None Scheduled
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 0.57
- Bias: Neutral & Weird
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (March 10th) +$560
$11,597
Daily Realized P&L: +$560
YTD Realized P&L: +$1,517
Closed Position(s) +$560
COIN $72/$77 Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Original Credit: $50
- Closed Debit: $20
- P&L: +$150 (+60%)
QQQ $313/$315 Call Credit Spread (5) March 24th
- Original Credit: $38
- Closed Debit: $15
- P&L: +$115 (+60.5%)
WMT $145/$146 Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Original Credit: $20
- Closed Debit: $8
- P&L: +$120 (+60%)
SPY $414/$417 Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Original Credit: $55
- Closed Debit: $20
- P&L: +$175 (+63.6%)
New Position(s)
GLD Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $169 & Bought: $168 --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $82
- Current Value: $19
- Profit Target: $7
- Profit Odds: 77%
Reasoning: The Fed is still hawkish. The economy is still sus. Weird stuff is now happening in the banking sector. In my mind, this all adds up to people wanting protection (i.e. Long on gold). I don't think GLD will be dropping much in the short term -- Feels like a GLD PCS is a very reasonable play.
TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
- Current Value: $34
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 86%
Reasoning: Tesla's stock was representing strength relative to both the SPY & QQQs. On the daily timeframe, TSLA has had a major breakdown. I thought the short term mean reversion offered a sold risk to reward opportunity on a larger timeframe, so I pulled the trigger. Fingers crossed for easy money.
Current Position(s)
META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $33
- Max Return: $33 & Max Risk: $217
- Current Value: $35
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 84%
META Put Credit Spread (10) March 17th
- Sold: $170 & Bought: $167.50 --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $232
- Current Value: $38
- Profit Target: Undecided
- Profit Odds: 79%
NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st
- Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
- Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
- Current Value: $34
- Profit Target: $25
- Profit Odds: 92%
OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $28
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 62%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $9
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 92%
My Thoughts
Oh brother, oh brother, oh brother!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
