D-Day Insanity

The bears took no prisoners!

Today's reports were a mixed bag. The Unemployment Rate went up (3.6% vs 3.4%; bullish), but more jobs were added than expected (311k vs 225k; bearish). This situation ended up favoring the bears because there is an incredible amount of stress on the banking sector. SVB, a top 20 bank, got murked:

"U.S. bank regulators seize Silicon Valley Bank in largest bank failure since the Great Recession"

On top of this truly wild development, the seasonality of today clearly favored the bears. I hope you got a piece of the action. I have been positioned for this event for a couple weeks now and was finally able to lock in a pretty penny -- All trade details (new, closed & current) are below.

There are major things coming on the horizon. I’ll fully explain everything I’m watching at conclusion of this newsletter.

Market Events: March 13th

None Scheduled

Seasonality Update

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 13th)

• Bull Win Percentage: 64%
• Profit Factor: 0.57
• Bias: Neutral & Weird

Equity Curve -->

Current Account Value (March 10th) +$560

$11,597

Daily Realized P&L: +$560

YTD Realized P&L: +$1,517

Become a Supporter

Closed Position(s) +$560

COIN $72/$77 Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th

• Original Credit: $50
• Closed Debit: $20
• P&L: +$150 (+60%)

QQQ $313/$315 Call Credit Spread (5) March 24th

• Original Credit: $38
• Closed Debit: $15
• P&L: +$115 (+60.5%)

WMT $145/$146 Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st

• Original Credit: $20
• Closed Debit: $8
• P&L: +$120 (+60%)

SPY $414/$417 Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th

• Original Credit: $55
• Closed Debit: $20
• P&L: +$175 (+63.6%)

New Position(s)

GLD Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st

• Sold: $169 & Bought: $168 --> Credit: $18
• Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $82
• Current Value: $19
• Profit Target: $7
• Profit Odds: 77%

Reasoning: The Fed is still hawkish. The economy is still sus. Weird stuff is now happening in the banking sector. In my mind, this all adds up to people wanting protection (i.e. Long on gold). I don't think GLD will be dropping much in the short term -- Feels like a GLD PCS is a very reasonable play.

TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st

• Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
• Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
• Current Value: $34
• Profit Target: $15
• Profit Odds: 86%

Reasoning: Tesla's stock was representing strength relative to both the SPY & QQQs. On the daily timeframe, TSLA has had a major breakdown. I thought the short term mean reversion offered a sold risk to reward opportunity on a larger timeframe, so I pulled the trigger. Fingers crossed for easy money.

Current Position(s)

META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th

• Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $33
• Max Return: $33 & Max Risk: $217
• Current Value: $35
• Profit Target: $15
• Profit Odds: 84%

META Put Credit Spread (10) March 17th

• Sold: $170 & Bought: $167.50 --> Credit: $18
• Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $232
• Current Value: $38
• Profit Target: Undecided
• Profit Odds: 79%

NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st

• Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
• Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
• Current Value: $34
• Profit Target: $25
• Profit Odds: 92%

OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st

• Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
• Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
• Current Value: $28
• Profit Target: $8
• Profit Odds: 62%

QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st

• Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
• Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
• Current Value: $9
• Profit Target: $8
• Profit Odds: 92%

My Thoughts

Oh brother, oh brother, oh brother!