The Market Screws The Most People Possible
Is anyone surprised by the fact that the market did the exact opposite of what was predicted?
In all reality, this is a sobering reminder that you need to be in full control of your own trades. Following public fear, or greed, is a good recipe for disaster.
For those of you who may have missed it, volatility has been higher than normal for a few reasons. The Unemployment Report dropped Friday (mixed results), the CPI Report comes out tomorrow, and there is a FOMC meeting next week. Oh yea, on top of all of that, people were worried over the weekend that the banking sector would collapse. Just a completely normal aspect of a super healthy economy. If you want a better explanation of what's going on with SVB, I will be posting a detailed breakdown on both Rumble & YT.
TLDR -- Since the Government stepped in and is now backstopping all depositors, I think the fear is overstated. Of course, things can always get worse, but I think regulators did enough to stop a mass bank run. The next big move will be dependent on the CPI Report tomorrow (low = bullish, high = bearish).
Market Events: March 14th
06:00 AM NFIB Optimism Index
08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
08:30 AM Core CPI
08:30 AM CPI (YoY)
08:30 AM Core CPI (YoY)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 1.68
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (March 13th) +$40
$11,540
Daily Realized P&L: +$40
YTD Realized P&L: +$1,557
Closed Position(s) +$40
GLD Put Credit Spread (5) March 31st
- Original Credit: $18
- Closed Debit: $10
- P&L: +$40 (+44.4%)
Note: This partial exit (5 left) was an accident. During stream, I fat fingered an order and erroneously sold half of my GLD position. My original plan was to sell all of the GLD PCS's at $7. I still fully believe that this trade will hit -- I just made a silly mistake.
New Position(s)
JPM Put Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $125 & Bought: $120 --> Credit: $100
- Max Return: $100 & Max Risk: $400
- Current Value: $1.12
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 65%
Reasoning: The gov'nt stepped in over the weekend saying they will backstop the banking sector. In my mind, the odds now favor a pop in major banks rather than a drop. Time will tell if this is a big brain move or particularly stupid.
TLT Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st
- Sold: $101 & Bought: $100 --> Credit: $27
- Max Return: $27 & Max Risk: $73
- Current Value: $27
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 71%
Reasoning: I personally believe the Fed is close to the end of their hike cycle -- Especially with the new banking debacle. I'm expecting yields to calm down or drop, which means bonds should calm down or pop. I think "long on bonds" is a good medium-term play.
Current Position(s)
META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $33
- Max Return: $33 & Max Risk: $217
- Current Value: $38
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 81%
META Put Credit Spread (10) March 17th
- Sold: $170 & Bought: $167.50 --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $232
- Current Value: $30
- Profit Target: Undecided
- Profit Odds: 83%
GLD Put Credit Spread (5) March 31st
- Sold: $169 & Bought: $168 --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $82
- Current Value: $8
- Profit Target: $7
- Profit Odds: 89%
NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st
- Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
- Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
- Current Value: $32
- Profit Target: $25
- Profit Odds: 92%
OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $37
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 57%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $12
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 89%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
- Current Value: $34
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 86%
My Thoughts
Get ready for more chaos!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
