The Market Screws The Most People Possible

Is anyone surprised by the fact that the market did the exact opposite of what was predicted?

In all reality, this is a sobering reminder that you need to be in full control of your own trades. Following public fear, or greed, is a good recipe for disaster. 

For those of you who may have missed it, volatility has been higher than normal for a few reasons. The Unemployment Report dropped Friday (mixed results), the CPI Report comes out tomorrow, and there is a FOMC meeting next week. Oh yea, on top of all of that, people were worried over the weekend that the banking sector would collapse. Just a completely normal aspect of a super healthy economy. If you want a better explanation of what's going on with SVB, I will be posting a detailed breakdown on both Rumble & YT.

TLDR -- Since the Government stepped in and is now backstopping all depositors, I think the fear is overstated. Of course, things can always get worse, but I think regulators did enough to stop a mass bank run. The next big move will be dependent on the CPI Report tomorrow (low = bullish, high = bearish).

Market Events: March 14th

06:00 AM    NFIB Optimism Index

08:30 AM    Consumer Price Index

08:30 AM    Core CPI

08:30 AM    CPI (YoY)

08:30 AM    Core CPI (YoY)

Seasonality Update

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 14th)

• Bull Win Percentage: 40%
• Profit Factor: 1.68
• Bias: Neutral

Equity Curve -->

Current Account Value (March 13th) +$40

$11,540

Daily Realized P&L: +$40

YTD Realized P&L: +$1,557

Closed Position(s) +$40

GLD Put Credit Spread (5) March 31st

• Original Credit: $18
• Closed Debit: $10
• P&L: +$40 (+44.4%)

Note: This partial exit (5 left) was an accident. During stream, I fat fingered an order and erroneously sold half of my GLD position. My original plan was to sell all of the GLD PCS's at $7. I still fully believe that this trade will hit -- I just made a silly mistake.

New Position(s)

JPM Put Credit Spread (5) April 6th

• Sold: $125 & Bought: $120 --> Credit: $100
• Max Return: $100 & Max Risk: $400
• Current Value: $1.12
• Profit Target: $40
• Profit Odds: 65%

Reasoning: The gov'nt stepped in over the weekend saying they will backstop the banking sector. In my mind, the odds now favor a pop in major banks rather than a drop. Time will tell if this is a big brain move or particularly stupid.

TLT Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st

• Sold: $101 & Bought: $100 --> Credit: $27
• Max Return: $27 & Max Risk: $73
• Current Value: $27
• Profit Target: $40
• Profit Odds: 71%

Reasoning: I personally believe the Fed is close to the end of their hike cycle -- Especially with the new banking debacle. I'm expecting yields to calm down or drop, which means bonds should calm down or pop. I think "long on bonds" is a good medium-term play.

Current Position(s)

META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th

• Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $33
• Max Return: $33 & Max Risk: $217
• Current Value: $38
• Profit Target: $15
• Profit Odds: 81%

META Put Credit Spread (10) March 17th

• Sold: $170 & Bought: $167.50 --> Credit: $18
• Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $232
• Current Value: $30
• Profit Target: Undecided
• Profit Odds: 83%

GLD Put Credit Spread (5) March 31st

• Sold: $169 & Bought: $168 --> Credit: $18
• Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $82
• Current Value: $8
• Profit Target: $7
• Profit Odds: 89%

NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st

• Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
• Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
• Current Value: $32
• Profit Target: $25
• Profit Odds: 92%

OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st

• Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
• Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
• Current Value: $37
• Profit Target: $8
• Profit Odds: 57%

QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st

• Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
• Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
• Current Value: $12
• Profit Target: $8
• Profit Odds: 89%

TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st

• Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
• Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
• Current Value: $34
• Profit Target: $15
• Profit Odds: 86%

My Thoughts

Get ready for more chaos!