Fakeout, fakeout???
Happy Inflation Day to all who celebrate!
The CPI report dropped at 8:30am ET today. The results were at expectations excluding the MoM Core CPI (0.5% vs 0.4% Exp). For the first half of the trading day, no one really seemed to care about that or the continue stress in the banking sector.
In the second half of the day, things took a bearish turn. All those nice gains disappeared. I'm not positive of why there was a sudden reversal. The market did hit technical resistance. A Russian jet did collide with a US drone. It could be one of those, both of those, or hell, it could be neither. All I know is that when the dust settled, we did a solid job of essentially going nowhere. That put another way, I'm happy I'm a premium seller. The bears got faked out, the bulls got faked out, everyone got faked out.
I made a few major trades today (detailed below). But first, here is everything you need to know about for tomorrow.
Market Events: March 15th
08:30 AM Retail Sales
08:30 AM Retail Sales Ex Autos
08:30 AM Producer Price Index
08:30 AM Core PPI
08:30 AM PPI (YoY)
08:30 AM Core PPI (YoY)
08:30 AM Empire State Manufacturing
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Homebuilders Survey
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.10
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (March 14th)
$11,098
Daily Realized P&L: +$0
YTD Realized P&L: +$1,557
Closed Position(s)
None
New Position(s)
TSLA Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $207.50 & Bought: $210 --> Credit: $40
- Max Return: $40 & Max Risk: $210
- Current Value: $51
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 81%
Reasoning: Both the SPY & QQQ started to selloff around midday. I expected the major companies to follow suit, but Telsa didn't. I thought TSLA's relative strength was an interesting opportunity, so I took a shot.
Current Position(s)
META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $33
- Max Return: $33 & Max Risk: $217
- Current Value: $168
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 32%
META #2 Put Credit Spread (10) March 17th
- Sold: $170 & Bought: $167.50 --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $232
- Current Value: $2
- Profit Target: $0 (Max)
- Profit Odds: 98%
GLD Put Credit Spread (5) March 31st
- Sold: $169 & Bought: $168 --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $82
- Current Value: $8
- Profit Target: $7
- Profit Odds: 89%
NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st
- Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
- Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
- Current Value: $51
- Profit Target: $25
- Profit Odds: 88%
OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $29
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 64%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $18
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 84%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
- Current Value: $60
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 78%
JPM Put Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $125 & Bought: $120 --> Credit: $100
- Max Return: $100 & Max Risk: $400
- Current Value: $59
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 78%
TLT Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st
- Sold: $101 & Bought: $100 --> Credit: $27
- Max Return: $27 & Max Risk: $73
- Current Value: $30
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 66%
My Thoughts
The predictions from yesterday ended up playing out nicely.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
