LET ME OFF THIS RIDE!
Kinda kidding, kinda not --
I was able to lock in some nice gains today, but I'm pretty worried about a few of my live positions. All the details of the positions I closed, opened and am holding are below.
Before we get into all that good jazz, there are few important things you should know. There were two important reports that came out this morning: Retail Sales & PPI. Retail sales were nothing too special. They were essentially in line with expectations. The Ex Autos portion of the report came in a little cool. The PPI Report was notably cool (i.e. bullish). Core PPI was 0.2% under expectations while the PPI was 0.4% under expectations. This was a strong sign inflation is easing.
Typically, you would expect this news to prompt a bullish swing upward. This expected price action was nowhere to be seen... at first. The first part of the day was bearish because there were many reports suggesting the demise of Credit Suisse. However, just before Power Hour, news broke that:
"SWITZERLAND HOLDS TALKS ON OPTIONS TO STABILIZE CREDIT SUISSE"
Markets apparently really like the sound of this because everyone started to smash the buy button. Due the seasonality of tomorrow (shown below), I think there is a solid chance this positive price action could continue.
Market Events: Thursday, March 16th
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Import Price Index
08:30 AM Housing Starts
08:30 AM Building Permits
08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 5.68
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (March 15th) +$130
$9,989
Daily Realized P&L: +$130
YTD Realized P&L: +$1,687
Closed Position(s) +$130
META $170/$167.50 Put Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Original Credit: $18
- Closed Debit: $4
- P&L: +$70 (+77.8%)
GLD $169/$168 Put Credit Spread (5) March 31st
- Original Credit: $18
- Closed Debit: $6
- P&L: +$60 (+66.7%)
New Position(s)
META CALL Credit Spread (8) March 17th
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $38
- Max Return: $38 & Max Risk: $212
- Current Value: $84
- Profit Target: $0 (Max)
- Profit Odds: 62%
Reasoning: No way META keeps running, right? Especially when the market is selling off, right? This isn't dumb, right?
META PUT Credit Spread (7) March 17th
- Sold: $187.50 & Bought: $185 --> Credit: $28
- Max Return: $28 & Max Risk: $222
- Current Value: $15
- Profit Target: $0 (Max)
- Profit Odds: 88%
Reasoning: I created this to hedge the META 190 CCS (a.k.a. The Worst Trade Ever).
Current Position(s)
META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $33
- Max Return: $33 & Max Risk: $217
- Current Value: $208
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 17.5%
NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st
- Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
- Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
- Current Value: $76
- Profit Target: $25
- Profit Odds: 85%
OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $54
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 42%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $23
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 80%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
- Current Value: $46
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 81%
JPM Put Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $125 & Bought: $120 --> Credit: $100
- Max Return: $100 & Max Risk: $400
- Current Value: $136
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 58%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $207.50 & Bought: $210 --> Credit: $40
- Max Return: $40 & Max Risk: $210
- Current Value: $49
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 83%
TLT Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st
- Sold: $101 & Bought: $100 --> Credit: $27
- Max Return: $27 & Max Risk: $73
- Current Value: $27
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 74%
My Thoughts
Let's start with the good news: I locked in a great profit on the SPY puts from yesterday!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
