We Survived
Happy St. Patrick's Day, Quadruple Witching & Friday!!!
What a week it has been. The banking sector is still on tilt, volatility is screaming higher, and the party isn't slowing down. If you want a detailed breakdown of what's happening in the finance sector and how we got here, there are a few videos on my channel that do a solid job of explaining the debacle.
There are a few key things you should know. The Fed is still actively fighting inflation -- The next FOMC decision comes out March 22nd. With that being said, they are also trying to not overdo it. Powell doesn't want to economy to look like the slab of meat Rocky trained on. Will they be able to balance both sides? I have no fucking clue. Sure, I hope they can pull it off because there are real-life implications. But, we also don't live in La La Land. We are engaging in a game of odds. In my opinion, it's more likely that the government and regulators mess things up before making the better. I truly hope this prediction is wrong, but it's our job to be prepared for the worst.
On that note, "stores of value" (i.e. Gold & Bitcoin) have been ripping higher. The price action is clearly telling us big players have been and are continuing to move into a risk off mindset. I also think it's worthwhile to highlight that tech plays (QQQ) have been beaten down the least during the recent onslaught.
The major things I'll personally be watching for during the upcoming week are detailed below. Whatever happens, don't forget: If you don't have risk management, it's only a matter of time before you get fucked (the bad way).
Market Events: Thursday, March 20th
None Scheduled
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.97
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (March 20th)
$9,471
Daily Realized P&L: -$1,469 :(
YTD Realized P&L: +$386
Closed Position(s) -$1,469
META $202.50/$200 Put Credit Spread (8) March 17th
- Original Credit: $108
- Closed Debit: $194
- P&L: -$688 (-79.3%)
META $202.50/$200 Call Credit Spread (8) March 17th
- Original Credit: $38
- Closed Debit: $0
- P&L: +$304 (+100%)
META $190/$192.50 Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Original Credit: $33
- Closed Debit: $250
- P&L: -$1,085 (-657.6%)
New Position(s)
SPY CALL Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $406 & Bought: $407 --> Credit: $23
- Max Return: $23 & Max Risk: $77
- Current Value: $25
- Profit Target: ~$10
- Profit Odds: 81%
SPY PUT Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $374 & Bought: $373--> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $18 & Max Risk: $82
- Current Value: $18
- Profit Target: ~$8
- Profit Odds: 75%
Reasoning: I wanted a bit more practice with Iron Condors, which is why I made this trade. I've studied them in the past and traded them a decent amount, but I have an idea surrounding them that requires a bit more data. In the coming weeks, you can expect to see a few more advanced options trading strategies. If you have any questions about them, don't hesitate to reach out to me.
For this play, the max gain is $41. This would be achieved if the SPY is below $406 and above $374 on April 6th. In the worst-case scenario, I'll only lose $59. The max risk is $100 (the spread) minus the total premium I collected (i.e. $41) -- It's mathematically impossible for me to lose on both legs (wings?) of the condor.
Current Position(s)
NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st
- Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
- Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
- Current Value: $190
- Profit Target: $25
- Profit Odds: 69% (Nice)
OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $41
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 53%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $39
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 66%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
- Current Value: $37
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 85%
JPM Put Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $125 & Bought: $120 --> Credit: $100
- Max Return: $100 & Max Risk: $400
- Current Value: $173
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 51%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $207.50 & Bought: $210 --> Credit: $40
- Max Return: $40 & Max Risk: $210
- Current Value: $35
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 86%
TLT Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st
- Sold: $101 & Bought: $100 --> Credit: $27
- Max Return: $27 & Max Risk: $73
- Current Value: $20
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 75%
My Thoughts
The lizard-man Zuckerberg took me for $1.5k today.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
