Let's Do This Thing
Hope you had a great weekend! Praying your hangover has dissipated by now.
There was no major market report today, and there isn't anything too special tomorrow. With that being said, there were still some crazy macro developments. Credit Suisse couldn't handle the heat in the kitchen and is now UBS's problem. UBS got a crazy good deal. The Swiss National Bank is essentially mitigating any of the major downside if Credit Suisse continues to be a toxic mess.
With respect to the remainder of the week, there will be no shortage of volatility. Former President Trump is expected to be indicted tomorrow. The FOMC meeting is Wednesday. And don't forget, we are still in the middle of a banking crisis.
In my dumbass opinion, there is nothing we can do but white knuckle the handlebars of this rollercoaster. I'm closely watching the 200-day moving average (~$393). If the market holds above, I'm bullish. If the market can't hold the level, I'm bearish. Easy as pie!
Market Events: Tuesday, March 21st
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 0.83
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (March 20th)
$9,834
Daily Realized P&L: +$0
YTD Realized P&L: +$386
Closed Position(s)
None
New Position(s)
SPY CALL Credit Spread (5) April 14th
- Sold: $411 & Bought: $412 --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $23
- Profit Target: ~$10
- Profit Odds: 81%
SPY PUT Credit Spread (5) April 14th
- Sold: $375 & Bought: $374 --> Credit: $17
- Max Return: $17 & Max Risk: $83
- Current Value: $16
- Profit Target: ~$8
- Profit Odds: 76%
Reasoning: This is a continuation on the new premium-selling strategy I detailed in the previous newsletter. The max profit ($37) is achieved between $411 and $375 on April 14th. The max loss (-$63) would occur above $411.63 or below $374.37 upon expiration.
Current Position(s)
NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st
- Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
- Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
- Current Value: $150
- Profit Target: $25
- Profit Odds: 69%
OXY Put Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $58 & Bought: $57 --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $35
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 57%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $40
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 67%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
- Current Value: $37
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 83%
JPM Put Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $125 & Bought: $120 --> Credit: $100
- Max Return: $100 & Max Risk: $400
- Current Value: $137
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 57%
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 6th
- $406/$407 Call Spread --> Credit: $23
- $374/$373 Put Spread --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $41 & Max Risk: $59
- Current Value: $42
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 77%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $207.50 & Bought: $210 --> Credit: $40
- Max Return: $40 & Max Risk: $210
- Current Value: $34
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 84%
TLT Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st
- Sold: $101 & Bought: $100 --> Credit: $27
- Max Return: $27 & Max Risk: $73
- Current Value: $22
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 76%
My Thoughts
This is the calm before the storm.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
