The Bulls Are Here
The bulls are on parade!
I'm not saying it's time to rejoice, but things are feeling pretty bullish. I wouldn't see we have gotten the official breakout signal quite yet, but the bull camp is knocking on the door.
With respect to Market Events, today was second day of congressional testimony involving the Fed and the banking crisis. It was essentially a nothing burger like yesterday. The banking sector didn't hate what was being said. Almost all sectors, excluding healthcare, posted a beautiful green day.
The downside gap fill to $396.49 never came, but man oh man, the seasonality played out amazingly. The bulls were feeling themselves so much that some of my current positions are flashing a danger sign -- All discussed below.
Market Events: Tuesday, March 30th
08:30 AM GDP 2nd Revision
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims
08:30 AM Continuing Jobless Claims
12:45 PM Boston Fed President Collins Speaks
12:45 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks
01:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Speaks
04:15 PM Fed H.4.1 Report on Bank Lending
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 47.8%
- Profit Factor: 0.52
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (March 29th)
$10,198
Daily Realized P&L: +$0
YTD Realized P&L: +$556
Closed Position(s)
None
New Position(s)
None
Current Position(s)
NVDA Call Credit Spread (2) March 31st
- Sold: $270 & Bought: $275 --> Credit: $71
- Max Return: $71 & Max Risk: $429
- Current Value: $188
- Profit Target: $25
- Profit Odds: 52%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (10) March 31st
- Sold: $312 & Bought: $313 --> Credit: $0.20
- Max Return: $20 & Max Risk: $80
- Current Value: $55
- Profit Target: $8
- Profit Odds: 46%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $200 & Bought: $202.50 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $213
- Current Value: $44
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 79%
JPM Put Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $125 & Bought: $120 --> Credit: $100
- Max Return: $100 & Max Risk: $400
- Current Value: $60
- Profit Target: $40
- Profit Odds: 75%
SPY Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $406 & Bought: $407 --> Credit: $12
- Max Return: $23 & Max Risk: $77
- Current Value: $34
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 69%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 6th
- $411/$412 Call Spread --> Credit: $18
- $386/$385 Put Spread --> Credit: $19
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $63
- Current Value: $20
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 86%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $207.50 & Bought: $210 --> Credit: $40
- Max Return: $40 & Max Risk: $210
- Current Value: $57
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 77%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 10th
- $407/$408 Call Spread --> Credit: $23
- $387/$386 Put Spread --> Credit: $16
- Max Return: $39 & Max Risk: $61
- Current Value: $44
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 70%
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 14th
- $411/$412 Call Spread --> Credit: $20
- $375/$374 Put Spread --> Credit: $17
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $63
- Current Value: $33
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 76%
TLT Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st
- Sold: $101 & Bought: $100 --> Credit: $27
- Max Return: $27 & Max Risk: $73
- Current Value: $21
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 74%
My Thoughts
We are getting close.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
