Bear Trap or Breather?
No lie, today was kinda boring.
In terms of Market Events, the major report of the day was the Job Openings at 10am ET (9.9M vs 10.5M Exp). The initial reaction was bullish -- Remember we live in the upside down. Good economic reports push the market down and vice versa because of the current inflation situation.
The morning bullish push held for a moment of time before everything sold off for the remainder of the day. This price action was in direct opposition to today's seasonal bias. I personally don't find this too surprising because the recent bullish trend has lasted for a while. The longer a trend lasts it's inherently closer to ending. To be fair, this could be a classic bear trap. The bull trend could easily continue, but the current scenario does offer an interesting risk to reward opportunity.
I placed a few trades to take advantage of this -- All posted below!
PSA: The market will be closed Friday, April 7th in observation of Good Friday. Additionally, the Unemployment Report will be dropping at 8:30am ET that morning.
Market Events: Monday, April 5th
08:15 AM ADP Employment
08:30 AM U.S. Trade Balance
09:45 AM S&P Final U.S. Services PMI
10:00 AM ISM Services
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (April 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.43
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (April 4th) +$325
$11,401
Daily Realized P&L: +$325
YTD Realized P&L: +$725
Closed Position(s) +$325
TSLA $207.50/$210 Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Original Credit: $40
- Closed Debit: $15
- P&L: +$125 (+62.5%)
TLT $101/$100 Put Credit Spread (10) April 21st
- Original Credit: $27
- Closed Debit: $7
- P&L: +$200 (+74.1%)
Current Position(s)
SPY Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $406 & Bought: $407 --> Credit: $12
- Max Return: $23 & Max Risk: $77
- Current Value: $74
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 29%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 6th
- $411/$412 Call Spread --> Credit: $18
- $386/$385 Put Spread --> Credit: $19
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $63
- Current Value: $32
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 68%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 10th
- $407/$408 Call Spread --> Credit: $23
- $387/$386 Put Spread --> Credit: $16
- Max Return: $39 & Max Risk: $61
- Current Value: $62
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 39%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 10th
- $405/$406 Call Spread --> Credit: $22
- $384/$383 Put Spread --> Credit: $16
- Max Return: $38 & Max Risk: $62
- Current Value: $73
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 30%
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 14th
- $411/$412 Call Spread --> Credit: $20
- $375/$374 Put Spread --> Credit: $17
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $63
- Current Value: $48
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 57%
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 14th
- $413/$414 Call Spread --> Credit: $18
- $380/$379 Put Spread --> Credit: $16
- Max Return: $34 & Max Risk: $66
- Current Value: $39
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 64%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 21st
- $420/$422 Call Spread --> Credit: $48
- $397/$395 Put Spread --> Credit: $30
- Max Return: $78 & Max Risk: $122
- Current Value: $71
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 78%
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
