The Hoppy Week Ahead
I hope you got to enjoy the long weekend. More importantly, I hope you were able to destroy the market today!
This week is shaping up to be an exciting one. It's officially the start of Earning's Season. Listed below are the major earnings I think you'll be interested in. I wanted to quickly highlight that major banks will be reporting at the end of the week. Their commentary on the current state of the banking crisis could prompt a strong bullish or bearish reaction. I personally don't see a neutral reaction as a likely outcome.
But wait, there's more! Before all that goes down, a myriad of economic reports will be made available. The CPI report comes out Wednesday. The PPI report comes out on Thursday. And finally, the Retail Sales report comes out on Friday. What a time to be a degenerate trader!
I wish I could tell you how this will all play out. My portfolio really wishes I knew how this would all play out. Alas, no person on this planet could be 100% certain. If someone definitively knew, they sure as fuck wouldn't be giving it away in a free newsletter. My point in saying this is that everything boils down to the basics. Look for optimal low risk to high reward setups and respect your plan. Stick to your profit targets & stop losses whatever they might be.
Reminder: We are going to be starting a Streetbeat Algo generation competition. It's free to compete, and yes, there will be cool prizes. Make sure you download Streetbeat to your phone, set up your account and use the referral code "MATT" on the initial page for a free $5-$5,000.
Market Events: Tuesday, April 11th
06:00 AM NFIB Optimism Index
01:30 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Speaks
06:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker Speaks
07:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Speaks
Earnings: April 10th - 14th
Monday: Tilray
Tuesday: Carmax
Wednesday: LVMH
Thursday: Delta & Progressive
Friday: Citi, Blackrock, JPMorgan, PNC, United Health Group & Wells Fargo
Note: This is NOT the full list -- I included the names of companies that are popular within the Goonie Community.
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (April 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 3.71
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (April 10th)
$10,633
Daily Realized P&L: -$123
YTD Realized P&L: +$397
Closed Position(s)
SPY $407/$387 Iron Condor (3) April 10th
- Original Credit: $39
- Closed Debit: $94
- P&L: -$165 (-59%)
SPY $405/$384 Iron Condor (3) April 10th
- Original Credit: $39
- Closed Debit: $100
- P&L: -$183 (-61%)
SPY Put Credit Spread (15) April 10th
- Original Credit: $18
- Closed Debit: $3
- P&L: +$225 (+83%)
Current Position(s)
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 14th
- $411/$412 Call Spread --> Credit: $20
- $375/$374 Put Spread --> Credit: $17
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $63
- Current Value: $49
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 55%
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 14th
- $413/$414 Call Spread --> Credit: $18
- $380/$379 Put Spread --> Credit: $16
- Max Return: $34 & Max Risk: $66
- Current Value: $38
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 65%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 21st
- $420/$422 Call Spread --> Credit: $48
- $397/$395 Put Spread --> Credit: $30
- Max Return: $78 & Max Risk: $122
- Current Value: $52
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 83%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 28th
- $422/$424 Call Spread --> Credit: $41
- $393/$391 Put Spread --> Credit: $28
- Max Return: $69 & Max Risk: $131
- Current Value: $48
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 86%
New Position(s)
SPY Call Credit Spread (3) May 5th
- Sold: $424 & Bought: $426 --> Credit: $41
- Max Return: $41 & Max Risk: $159
- Current Value: $46
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 80%
SPY Put Credit Spread (3) May 5th
- Sold: $397 & Bought: $395 --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $163
- Current Value: $36
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 74%
Reasoning: A continuaion of the Iron Condor strategy.
My Thoughts
Even though today ended up being bullish, I'm still holding my SPY & TSLA puts. Obviously, I'm starting to feel the pain, but my risk has yet to be hit. It's honestly this simple: Neither my profit target nor my risk has been hit, so I'm sitting on my hands.
On a positive note, my robot crushed the market (both long & short) today. Would you want me to start posting those details in here? Let me know in a comment below. I'm more than happy to include the details, I just don't want things to become too cluttered.
With respect to the remainder of this week, I'm simply waiting. I could make a bullish prediction based off of seasonality, but it would be low confidence. Honestly, I'm planning on waiting around until the fireworks start going off Wednesday, Thursday & Friday of this week. I want to be reactive not predictive.
Thanks for reading -- Much Love!
Notes
Max Return (Credit Spreads): The credit received when creating the position. This is achieved when you get to the expiration date and the price is below the sold contract for a Call Credit Spread and above the sold contract for a Put Credit Spread.
Max Risk (Credit Spreads): The difference between the spread's two strikes minus the credit received when the position was created.
Breakeven (Credit Spreads): The sold strike plus the credit for CCS and the strike minus the credit for PCS.
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Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
