Bulllllish
... woah!
"Stocks close higher Thursday, S&P 500 notches highest close since February"
The PPI inflation report came in like a cold mother fucker (MoM Reading: -0.5% vs 0.0% Exp & YoY Reading: 2.7% vs 3.0%). Now that we have had two dovish inflations reports in two days, it makes sense that the bears got absolutely destroyed. The SPY broke above and held $412, which makes me bullish leaning in the short term. The QQQ's seem to be slightly lagging, so I'll be watching for its breakout at $321 in the next couple trading days.
If you caught a piece of the action, a massive congrats to you!
Moving forward, we still have some major market events on the horizon. The Retail Sales report is dropping at 8:30am ET tomorrow. Don't forget that we are also officially in Earnings Season. To top it all off, there will be a handful of extremely important banks reporting how everything played out in the last quarter.
Nothing is ever guaranteed in the market, but it looks like the seasonal April bullishness will play out nicely.
Reminder: We are going to be starting a Streetbeat Algo generation competition. It's free to compete, and yes, there will be cool prizes. Make sure you download Streetbeat to your phone, set up your account and use the referral code "MATT" on the initial page for a free $5-$5,000.
Market Events: Friday, April 14th
08:30 AM U.S. Retail Sales
08:30 AM Retail Sales Minus Autos
08:30 AM Import Price Index
08:30 AM Import Prices Minus Fuel
08:45 AM Fed Gov. Waller Speaks
09:15 AM Industrial Production
09:15 AM Capacity Utilization
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
Earnings: April 10th - 14th
Monday: Tilray
Tuesday: Carmax
Wednesday: LVMH
Thursday: Delta & Progressive
Friday: Citi, Blackrock, JPMorgan, PNC, United Health Group & Wells Fargo
Note: This is NOT the full list -- I included the names of companies that are popular within the Goonie Community.
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (April 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 1.31
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (April 13th)
$9,021
Daily Realized P&L: +$0
YTD Realized P&L: +$397
Closed Position(s)
None
Current Position(s)
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 14th
- $411/$412 Call Spread --> Credit: $20
- $375/$374 Put Spread --> Credit: $17
- Max Return: $37 & Max Risk: $63
- Current Value: $75
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 25%
SPY Iron Condor (5) April 14th
- $413/$414 Call Spread --> Credit: $18
- $380/$379 Put Spread --> Credit: $16
- Max Return: $34 & Max Risk: $66
- Current Value: $53
- Profit Target: $10
- Profit Odds: 45%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 21st
- $420/$422 Call Spread --> Credit: $48
- $397/$395 Put Spread --> Credit: $30
- Max Return: $78 & Max Risk: $122
- Current Value: $40
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 79%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 28th
- $422/$424 Call Spread --> Credit: $41
- $393/$391 Put Spread --> Credit: $28
- Max Return: $69 & Max Risk: $131
- Current Value: $54
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 78%
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 28th
- $419/$421 Call Spread --> Credit: $38
- $399/$397 Put Spread --> Credit: $34
- Max Return: $72 & Max Risk: $128
- Current Value: $85
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 68%
SPY Iron Condor (3) May 5th
- $424/$426 Call Spread --> Credit: $46
- $397/$395 Put Spread --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $83 & Max Risk: $117
- Current Value: $78
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 76%
New Position(s)
None
My Thoughts
I cut my SPY & TSLA puts for a loss :/
My risk was hit, so it was time for me to pull the ripcord. If things revert to the downside in the near future, I'll reenter with a farther out expiration date. On a positive note, my futures trading robots absolutely destroyed the market today. The systematic trades ended up being a nice hedge. I won't have to cry (as much as normal) in the shower.
As things currently stand, my only live positions are the iron condors posted above. I wanted to buy a few calls today, but I figured it was a little too close to revenge trading after my puts got destroyed. Hindsight bias is 20/20, but it's frustrating to know how much money I could have made if I yolo'd long. I know logically I made the right move, but the gambler in me is beyond frustrated. Good thing there is always tomorrow.
Thanks for reading -- Much Love!
Notes
Max Return (Credit Spreads): The credit received when creating the position. This is achieved when you get to the expiration date and the price is below the sold contract for a Call Credit Spread and above the sold contract for a Put Credit Spread.
Max Risk (Credit Spreads): The difference between the spread's two strikes minus the credit received when the position was created.
Breakeven (Credit Spreads): The sold strike plus the credit for CCS and the strike minus the credit for PCS.
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
