Matt Kohrs
News • Business • Investing & Finance
The Stonk Market Horror Show
Goonies Newsletter (Oct. 23rd - 27th)
October 22, 2023
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The Stonk Market Horror Show

Greetings Degens,

I hope all your bearish dreams came true this past week.

If you happened to be bullish... that's a major bummer. You'll get them next time, brother.

We have lots to chat about. The War in Israel is getting worse. As global tensions continue to intensify, watch for market volatility to increase. Yes, oil prices could be prompted to increase if production or trade routes are impacted, but a more evident play might be defense contractors. The political scene within the US is also proving to be a tense situation. We are still without an elected Speaker of The House. The longer all of this drags out, the more downward pressure on the equities market.

To add to all the fun, Daddy Powell (Mr. Fed Chairman) decided to remind the world how hawkish he is. He reiterated his entire "rates higher for longer" speaking points. In a normal trading week, this would be bearish enough. This week it was particularly impactful because yields and the dollar are ripping. I cannot stress enough: If yields and the dollar continue to rise, I would very much be looking for equities to continue to fall.

Earnings season is in full swing. There were two big report this past week: Netflix & Tesla. The streaming service crushed it. The EV maker got crushed. We have a handful of major tech names reporting this week (MSFT, GOOGL, SNAP, META, AMZN & INTC) -- Stay frosty.

Till Next Time,

Matt

 


 

Market Events

Monday, Oct. 23rd

None

 

Tuesday, Oct. 24th

09:45 AM ET     S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)

 

Wednesday, Oct. 25th

10:00 AM ET     New Home Sales (Sep)

10:00 AM ET     Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision

 

Thursday, Oct. 26th

08:15 AM ET     Deposit Facility Rate (Oct)

08:15 AM ET     ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)

08:30 AM ET     Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)

08:30 AM ET     GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

10:00 AM ET     Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

Friday, Oct. 27th

08:30 AM ET     Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)

08:30 AM ET     Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

 


 

Upcoming Earnings

Monday 

AM: Philips

PM: Logitech

 

Tuesday

AM: 3M, Coca Cola, GE, Spotify & Verizon

PM: Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Snap & Visa

 

Wednesday

AM: Boeing, Hilton & T Mobile

PM: IBM & Meta

 

Thursday

AM: Merck, Northrop Grumman, Royal Caribbean Group, Southwest & UPS

PM: Amazon, Capital One, Chipotle, Enphase, Ford, Intel & Vale

 

Friday

AM: Abbvie, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66 & T. Rowe Price

 

Note: This is NOT the full list -- I included the names of companies that are popular within the Goonie Community.

 


 

Seasonality Update

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Oct. 23rd)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 61.5%
  • Profit Factor: 1.88
  • Bias: Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Oct. 24th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 42.3%
  • Profit Factor: 1.29
  • Bias: Leaning Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Oct. 25th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 34.6%
  • Profit Factor: 0.22
  • Bias: Bearish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Oct. 26th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 50%
  • Profit Factor: 0.82
  • Bias: Neutral

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Oct. 27th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 61.5%
  • Profit Factor: 3.20
  • Bias: Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 


 

Options Strategy Update

The 0 DTE signal went 10 out of 10 (~100% accuracy)*. 

Life (and thus trading) is funny. After the worst weekly performance for this strategy, we now have the best weekly performance. It may be luck. It may be the improvements I've slowly been rolling out. Regardless, more data is needed. I'll continue tracking, monitoring & improving. Fingers crossed for next week!

 

Monday Oct. 16th

SPY PUT Credit Spread ($433 / $432)  🟢

QQQ PUT Credit Spread ($366 / $365)  🟢

 

Tuesday Oct. 17th

SPY PUT Credit Spread ($432 / $431)  🟢

QQQ PUT Credit Spread ($363 / $362)  🟢

 

Wednesday Oct. 18th

SPY CALL Credit Spread ($436 / $437)  🟢

QQQ CALL Credit Spread ($368 / $369)  🟢

 

Thursday Oct 19th

SPY CALL Credit Spread ($432 / $433)  🟢

QQQ CALL Credit Spread ($366 / $367)  🟢

 

Friday Oct 20th

SPY CALL Credit Spread ($428 / $427)  🟢

QQQ CALL Credit Spread ($361 / $360)  🟢

 


 

Charts of Interest

Lookout below! The S&P 500 broke not one but two major support trendlines this past week. For this upcoming week, I'll be watching $420, $416 and then $410 if the bears are really feeling themselves. If the bull camp decides to fight back, I'd be watching $425, $430 and then $432. I think it's important to note that I believe the bears currently have the upper hand. If yields and the dollar continue to rip, I'd be very confident in equities continue their trip downwards.

 

Similar to the overall market, the tech sector had a rough week. The QQQs caught itself at the $354 support. If this support doesn't hold, $351 would be followed by $346. In the event that things get very bad, pay attention to the downside gap fill at $333. Earnings are also key to monitor. Tesla missed and Netflix beat. Next up to bat is META, GOOGL, SNAP, META & AMZN.

 

Bitcoin put in a solid green on the optimism that a Spot BTC ETF will be approved soon. On a larger timeframe, the digital commodity is still rangebound. I'd be willing to bet things will get bullishly fun above $32k.

 

Tesla got murdered, yo. The earnings report was a big fat miss. The earnings call was an even bigger fatter miss. Elon was a pessimistic on the overall economy as he could have possible been. If $210 doesn't hold, watch the $195 region. If $210 does hold, watch the upside gap fill at $242.

 

Nvidia's breakdown recovery failed when it was announced that the Biden Administration would be increasing its restrictions against selling processing chips to China. This is obviously a direct hit to NVDA's revenue. If the low $400s don't hold, we might be saying "hi" to $366.

 

The most magical place on Earth isn't seeming too magical. The breakout proved to be a fake out. Watching for a return to $80 in the near term.

 


 

Times I Puked While Stair Stepping

2.3 *

* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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FREE Options Trading Lecture This Friday @ 10am ET

It's all going down THIS FRIDAY!!!

The team at SpotGamma will be joining the MK Show to discuss various options trading strategies. (Yes, it will include 0 DTEs for you degens).

This is 100% FREE options trading education.
All you need to do is be where you normally watch me at 10am ET!

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February 26, 2024
Welcome! Read This To Get Into The Goonie Trading Discord!!!

If you're having any issues getting connected to the Goonie Discord, don't hesitate to reach out to me. (IT CAN TAKE UP TO 24 HOURS FOR YOUR ACCOUNT TO PROCESS)

DMing me on Discord would be the most efficient (@mmk147) or you could email me at: [email protected]

Use the code GOONIE to switch from a Local's Member to a Local's Support for FREE to get premium access.

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PRO TIP: Make sure you are logged into the correct Discord account when you sync your two accounts.

PFG! (July 18th)

TGIF! Happy Friday!!!

Today you could possibly win BOTH cold hard cash AND a Vanquish prop trading account. On top of giving away three prop accounts, you can utilize code GOONIE to save 50% on all plans!

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If you want a chance at winning $150 and/or a Vanquish options account simply do the following -->
Post your Twitter, IG or Email in a comment below & register an account on Vanquish.

The drawing will happen on stream today around 10:30am ET!

The giveaway is sponsored by Vanquish. Three accounts will be given away. Show them a bit of love!

Vanquish (Options Prop Trading): https://bit.ly/VanquishMK
Use code GOONIE to save 90% on $10k plans!

No duplicate entries. You will be disqualified.

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Back To Back Bangers! || Goonie Newsletter
Goonie Newsletter (July 21st - July 25th)

Back To Back Bangers!

Hey,

Key Weekly Performance Stats:

  • S&P 500: +0.60% (New High)
  • Nasdaq 100: +1.37% (New High)
  • Russel 2000: +0.28%
  • Bitcoin: +0.37% (New High)

Last week, stocks posted modest gains last week as earnings season kicked off and tariff concerns lingered. The Nasdaq rose 1.5%, notching its fifth straight record close on Friday and its 11th all-time high this year. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, while the Dow slipped 0.3% to finish flat on the week.

Tech led the way—Tesla climbed 3%, and Charles Schwab jumped to a record high after beating earnings expectations. But results were mixed: Netflix fell 5% despite strong numbers. Overall, solid reports from banks and tech helped offset trade policy jitters.

On the economic front, data remained strong. Retail sales beat expectations, CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, and consumer sentiment hit a five-month high—despite President Trump reviving tariff threats with new 30% duties on Mexico and the EU starting August 1. Industrial production held steady, housing starts met forecasts, and the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.42%. Gold edged up, oil slipped, and bitcoin surged past $123,000 amid fresh crypto regulation news.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to earnings from the Magnificent Seven, with Alphabet and Tesla leading the lineup. Investors will also watch for S&P flash PMIs, existing home sales, Q2 GDP, and PCE inflation—all of which could shape the Fed’s next move. Fed Chair Powell speaks Tuesday, and markets will be listening closely for signs of either resilience or slowdown. As always, stick to your plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.

 
Best,

Thicc Kohrs

P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)

 


 

Earnings

Monday, July 21st

Morning: Verizon

Tuesday, July 22nd

Morning: Coca Cola, GM & Lockheed Martin

Evening: Capital One & SAP

Wednesday, July 23rd

Morning: AT&T

Evening: Alphabet, Chipotle, IBM & Tesla

Thursday, July 24th

Morning: American Airlines & Southwest

Evening: Intel

Friday, July 25th

None

 


 

Market Events

Monday, July 21st

10:00 AM ET    US Leading Economic Indicators (Jun)

 

Tuesday, July 22nd

None

 

Wednesday, July 23rd

10:00 AM ET    Exisiting Home Sales (Jun)

10:30 AM ET    Crude Oil Inventories

 

Thursday, July 24th

08:15 AM ET    ECB Interest Rate Decision

08:30 AM ET    Initial Jobless Claims

09:45 AM ET    S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Jul)

10:00 AM ET    New Home Sales (Jun)

 

Friday, July 25th

08:30 AM ET    Durable Goods MoM & YoY (Jun)

 


 

Seasonality Update

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, July 21st)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 26%
  • Profit Factor: 0.47
  • Bias: Bearish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, July 22nd)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 63%
  • Profit Factor: 1.77
  • Bias: Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 23rd)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 48%
  • Profit Factor: 0.80
  • Bias: Neutral

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 24th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 48%
  • Profit Factor: 0.60
  • Bias: Leaning Bearish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 25th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 44%
  • Profit Factor: 0.85
  • Bias: Leaning Bearish

Equity Curve -->

 

Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.


 

Options Strategy Update

The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 8 times (10 for 12 total units) this past week.

Signal Accuracy: ~75%

Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!

 

Piper's Current Signal Streak: 11 Trades

July Record: 31/34 Units

 

Monday, June 14th

SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $621 / $620) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $551 / $550) 🟢

 

Tuesday, July 15th

SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $623 / $622) 🔴

QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $557 / $556) 🔴

 

Wednesday, July 16th

No signal produced

 

Thursday, July 17th

SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $623 / $622) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $556 / $555) 🟢

 

Friday, July 18th

SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $625 / $624) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $559 / $558) 🟢

 


 

Apex Accounts Blown

 All of them *

* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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Daily Degen Trade Report || Follow All of My Trades For FREE!!!
Monday, July 21st

New Highs, New Me!

If you're curious about what I trade & how I trade, join the Goonie Trading Discord. You can be a premium member for 1 month free of charge. It's a riskless opportunity for you to become a Goonie today!

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 

Piper's Picks

PIPER'S RETURN: +$36 (+100%)

A BULLISH signal, 5/5 strength, was generated around 10:20am ET by Piper. The signal was used with various advanced options strategies to score (don't worry, I'll teach you every aspect of the strategy).Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!

SPY Return: +21 (+100%) per $279 signal capital requirement

QQQ Return: +$15 (+100%) per $285 signal capital requirement

Total Return: +$36 (+100%) per $564 signal capital requirement

 

These trades alone would have paid for AN ENTIRE YEAR OF GOONIE DISCORD ACCESS! 

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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Daily Degen Trade Report (+$600) || TGIF!
Friday, July 18th

TGIF!

THICC RETURN: +$600

My posted, REAL-TIME TRADES PAID -- Today's trades would have paid for AN ENTIRE YEAR OF GOONIE MEMBERSHIP!

If you're curious about what I trade & how I trade, join the Goonie Trading Discord. You can be a premium member for 1 month free of charge. It's a riskless opportunity for you to become a Goonie today!

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 

Piper's Picks

PIPER'S RETURN: +$14 (+100%)

A BULLISH signal, 3/5 strength, was generated around 11:45am ET by Piper. The signal was used with various advanced options strategies to score (don't worry, I'll teach you every aspect of the strategy).Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!

SPY Return: +7 (+100%) per $93 signal capital requirement

QQQ Return: +$7 (+100%) per $93 signal capital requirement

Total Return: +$14 (+100%) per 186 signal capital requirement

 

Thicc Matt's Personal Trades

Trade One: 30 SPX 6,245/6,240 Put Credit Spreads (Piper Signal)These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and expired worthless  -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $600!

 

Trade One Return: +$600

Total Return: +$600 (before fees)

 

These trades alone would have paid for AN ENTIRE YEAR OF GOONIE DISCORD ACCESS! 

You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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