Happy New Year, Brother!
Howdy,
That's a wrap on 2023! Here's to an even better time in 2024!!!
If you're like me, you may have hit some of your trading and investing goals in 2023, but there is always more you want to accomplish. I personally like to set the bar high because I want to see how far the competition can push me. This typically leaves me in a state of hunger at the end of the year. There is always room to "do better", which keeps me engaged. With that in mind, I'm sure many of you reading this would resonate with the sentiment. The next logical question is: How?
The truth is you already most likely possess the knowledge to not only be a profitable trader, but an extremely profitable trader. I don't know all your individual situations, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's similar to mine. My major Achilles heel when it comes to trading is a lack of discipline. I'm more of a gunslinging cowboy rather than a calm, cool & consistent trader. I’m not systematically exploiting an edge. I'm aware of multiple edges, but I don't have the psychology to consistently take advantage of my knowledge.
My 2024 goal is to be as robotic, systematic & unemotional as possible. I wholeheartedly believe this will make me more money than I know what to do with. The chances of success will greatly increase if we do this as a team -- I hope you join me on this journey!
Let's Get It,
Matt
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Jan. 1st
ALL DAY MARKET CLOSED (Happy New Year!)
10:30 PM ET RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
Tuesday, Jan. 2nd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Wednesday, Jan. 3rd
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec)
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Nov)
02:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, Jan. 4th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Jan. 5th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (Dec)
10:00 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
None
Tuesday
None
Wednesday
AM: Walgreens
Thursday
None
Friday
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Jan. 1st)
- MARKET CLOSED
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Jan. 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.03
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Jan. 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 0.94
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Jan. 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 0.99
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Jan. 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.84
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (6 total unites) this past week (Signal Accuracy: ~100%).
A solid way to close out the year! The degen strategy continues to make new PnL highs. I'm excited to see how it performs in 2024. I'm also very interested in rolling out some new strategies I have been working on in the background. The upcoming year will certainly bring some exciting times -- Stay tuned!
Current Streak: 8
December Record: 34/37
Monday Dec. 25th
None
Tuesday Dec. 26th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2 units @ $473 / $472) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2 unit @ $409 / $408) 🟢
Wednesday Dec. 27th
None
Thursday Dec. 28th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (1 unit @ $476 / $475) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (1 unit @ $411 / $410) 🟢
Friday Dec. 29th
None
Charts of Interest
SPY
The overall market came extremely close to hitting a new all-time high ($477.50 vs $480). Unfortunately, the bull camp didn't have enough in the tank to push us to a record level before the year was out. This pullback in healthy in my book. Honestly, I would argue the bulls are in control unless $455 is given up. Until then, I'll be looking for the classic pattern of expansion, contraction, followed by expansion.
QQQ
Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ hit a new all-time high this past week. Similar to the S&P 500, the week concluded with a bit of weakness. In the larger picture, this is still a healthy, reasonable pullback. Based on the posted chart, the tech sector is still very bullish as long as $403 holds and doesn't really turn bearish until $390ish.
BTC
In the short term, Bitcoin's breakout attempt appears to have failed. The support of $40k-ish is still intact, so it's now a patience game. Will we see $45k or $40k first?
TSLA
The ole Teslerrr breakout appears to be taking a breather. It's up to you and your personal risk tolerance if you lock in the gains since it fell back into the EMA cloud. On a positive note, this could be start of a new bullish consolidation, which could lead to something even better. TSLA is definitely "on watch" to see how this recovery plays out.
MSFT
Microsoft still remains my top breakout watch. The consolidation has not lasted an uncharacteristically long amount of time. Alas, the major trigger I'm personally looking for is a close about $376-$377. The bullish thesis will remain as long as $364 holds. My target is currently a test/break of $384.
COIN
Coinbase is showing a clear toping sign on the daily chart. I'll be looking for more of a breather before a continuation.
NVDA
Potential triple top, but all the lows are higher. It will be very interesting to see which way this ticker breaks. I'm not leaning bullish or bearish, but I'm expecting a large move.
Total Times Piper And/Or I Vomited In The Car
1.2 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed :(
The PCS was sold at $1.35/ea and was all bought at $0.05/ea-- This means my REALIZED GAIN WAS $650.
This PCS was at $2.50/ea and was not closed. SPX closed at 5,732.94 -- This means my realized loss was $132.
The PCS was sold at $1.25/ea and was all bought at $0.05/ea-- This means my REALIZED GAIN WAS $360.
This PCS was at $1.25/ea and was not closed. SPX closed at 5,732.94 -- This means my realized loss was $507.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
This trade was one of my main favorites. The market showed strength early in the session, so I sold puts at key support. All of the PCS were sold at $1.00/ea and were all bought back at $0.05/ea -- This means my REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,900.
This was a bit silly, a bit too aggressive, and it cost me. I sold these PCS at $2.25/ea and was forced to buy the back at $4.15/ea (risk was hit) -- This means my realized loss was 1,900.
I was of the opinion that this morning's weakness wouldn't last, so I sold additional PCS when bullish flow entered the market. I sold these spreads at $0.75/ea and bought them all back at $0.05/ea -- This means my REALIZED GAIN WAS $350.
