NEW HIGHS!!!
Hey Hey Hey,
It pays to be a bull! Both the SPY and the QQQ’s hit a new all-time high to conclude the trading week. If you’ve been in the bull camp, you’ve been printing! Congrats!
You might be wondering what in the world is going on? That’s a fair question. Unfortunately, there isn’t a quality answer. Throughout the week, there was no bombshell bullish report. There were some data points that suggested inflation is continuing to slow down. However, some Fed members sounded a bit more hawkish than expected in their public speeches. My main point is there was no salient announcement that pushed prices to new heights.
I know the lack of clear cause and effect can be frustrating, but I do have good news. I strongly believe this upcoming week will be even more exciting. As detailed below, we have some major macroeconomic reports, and earnings season is really heating up with some major tech companies being on deck.
I highly recommend paying attention to the news flow. It’s never a bad idea to have your finger on the pulse of major, ongoing developments. With that in mind, it doesn’t change my personal gameplan. I always (attempt) to go with the flow. It’s a bonus if the price action “makes sense” to me, but my trading methodology remains consistent. I will remain bullish until there is a clear reason not to be -- It does not matter to me how much Fintwit says everything is overvalued.
Later,
Matt
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Jan. 22nd
None
Tuesday, Jan. 23rd
None
Wednesday, Jan. 24th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
10:00 AM ET BoC Interest Rate Decision
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, Jan. 25th
08:15 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
08:30 AM ET GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:45 AM ET ECB Press Conference
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales
Friday, Jan. 26th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index (MoM)
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index (YoY)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
PM: Logitech & United
Tuesday
AM: GE, Halliburton, J&J, Lockheed Martin, P&G & Verizon
PM: Netflix
Wednesday
AM: ASML & AT&T
PM: IBM & Tesla
Thursday
AM: Alaska Airlines, American Airlines & Southwest
PM: Capital One, Intel & Visa
Friday
AM: American Express
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Jan. 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.61
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Jan. 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 1.35
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Jan. 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.06
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Jan. 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.42
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Jan. 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 1.77
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 3 for 3 times (14 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
The good times keep rolling! The Piper System has now been perfect for two weeks in a row. I hope Piper and the strength signals have helped you better navigate the markets on a daily basis. Personally, I very happy with the recent performance, and I'm even more excited about the soon-to-come Roo System (another 0 DTE strategy).
Current Streak: 18
January Record: 44/46
Monday Jan. 15th
Market Closed
Tuesday Jan. 16th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday Jan. 17th
SPY CALL Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $474 / $475) 🟢
QQQ CALL Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $408 / $409) 🟢
Thursday Jan. 18th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $473 / $472) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $410 / $409) 🟢
Friday Jan. 19th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $476 / $475) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $414 / $413) 🟢
Top 5 Charts of Interest
AAPL
Apple was having a rough run the past two weeks, but it looks as if its luck is finally changing. The price action is starting to represent an obvious double bottom. The stock price has now recaptured its EMA cloud. Looking for $185 to hold and for a retest of $195.
NFLX
Netflix has been consolidating in bullish (slightly) higher high and (slightly) higher low pattern. If the earnings report this upcoming week are well received by the market, I'll be looking for a recapture and push about $500.
GC
We've been here before! Gold is seemingly playing out the same pattern it's been in for months. Support appears to have been found at the EMA cloud once again. I remain bullish on the follow through unless 2,000 is broken.
BTC
After a failed breakout attempt, Bitcoin is now in danger of breaking down. Multiple closes below the EMA cloud & 48 EMA tells me the bears are gaining some strength. Looking for the trendline to hold. If it doesn't, the next support it at $38k. If the bulls step in, I'd be looking for a retest of $44k.
COIN
As alerted last week, Coinbase is showing some serious weakness. I mentioned COIN's potential reversion at $175 -- It's now down more than $50/share. The reversion has turned into a full-fledged selloff. Personally, I wouldn't be doing anything at this stage. It's chasing to short & it's catching a knife to go long. Patience would be my play.
Times Piper Attacked Me During Business Calls
1* (Low count, but it really hurt)
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
