Higher, Higher & More Higher
Hey Y'all,
Another week, another all-time high in the market. I hope the same thing happened in your trading account!
For those of you who missed it, a few key things went down recently. The US's GDP was announced to be better than expected. We also found out inflation was lower than anticipated. This bullish combo undoubtably helped push both the S&P and Nasdaq to new heights.
With respect to earnings, it was a mixed bag. Netflix crushed all metrics -- Tesla & Intel got crushed by all metrics. The upcoming week will have more impactful earnings. Make sure you stay on your toes. Personally, I'll be paying close attention to Apple, Amazon, Meta & Microsoft. Together, these four represent a considerable portion of the entire market.
I know you might be thinking that's a lot of excitement, but the fun doesn't stop there?! This upcoming week we will be receiving impactful updates related to monetary policy. The results of the FOMC meeting will be announced Wednesday afternoon. There is a very low chance of any change to the Fed Fund Rate. However, there is a high chance we will be getting more of an idea about when rate cuts will start. This will have considerable implications on bonds, their yields, gold, and the dollar. Buckle up!
Later,
Matt
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Jan. 29th
None
Tuesday, Jan. 30th
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
10:00 AM ET CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)
Wednesday, Jan. 31st
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Jan)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET Fed Interest Decision -- I'll Be Streaming This!!!
02:30 PM ET FOMC Press Conference -- I'll Be Streaming This!!!
Thursday, Feb. 1st
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jan)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Us Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
Friday, Feb. 2nd
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (Jan)
08:30 AM ET Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
AM: Philips & SoFi
Tuesday
AM: GM, JetBlue, Marathon, Pfizer & UPS
PM: Alphabet (Google), AMD, Microsoft & Starbucks
Wednesday
AM: Boeing & Mastercard
PM: Qualcomm
Thursday
AM: Peloton
PM: Apple, Amazon & Meta
Friday
AM: Abbvie, Chevron & ExxonMobil
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Jan. 29th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 0.74
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Jan. 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 2.35
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Jan. 31st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 76%
- Profit Factor: 2.99
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Feb. 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 72%
- Profit Factor: 4.49
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Feb. 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.99
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 5 times (20 for 20 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
I don't have much to say. Piper is legit af. Roo is becoming legit af. More testing is needed to perfect things, but the posted theoretical results speak for themself. I hope you got a piece.
Current Streak: 28
January Record: 64/66
Monday Jan. 22nd
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $482 / $481) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $420 / $419) 🟢
Tuesday Jan. 23rd
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $482 / $481) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $420 / $419) 🟢
Wednesday Jan. 24th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $485 / $484) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $425 / $424) 🟢
Thursday Jan. 25th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $486 / $488) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $426 / $425) 🟢
Friday Jan. 26th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $487 / $486) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $423 / $422) 🟢
Top 3 Charts of Interest
BTC
Bitcoin is showing the classic signs of a fake out breakdown. After the craziness of the Spot BTC ETF approval, we experienced a "sell the news" event. Price momentum has not been bullish since then. Fortunately, the bull camp recently recaptured the price trendline and is pushing the upper side of the EMA cloud. Looking for a solid continuation from here.
TSLA
After a clearly disastrous earnings report and call, Tesla's stock got kicked in the balls. I'm looking for "earnings drift" to playout from here. I'm looking for the bearish trend to continue to $178 and then potentially $164. From there, I would be highly interested in a reversionary bounce.
RUM
Potential squeeze alert. There is obviously no such thing as a guarantee, but I wanted to throw this ticker on the watchlist. Rumble's stock has a high SI, medium size free float & is starting to get more discussion on social media. A break and close above $7 could get very exciting imo.
Bonus Chart: CL
Due to various global political issues, the supply of oil is coming into question. If supply drops and demand stays constant, price must increase. As show in the chart above, oil is clearly breaking out to the upside. I'll be looking for the retest of the EMA cloud followed by a bounce continuation.
Total Count of Claws Marks on Forearm
84 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
