Matt Kohrs
News • Business • Investing & Finance
You’re Confirmed [February 23 @ 1:00 PM EST]
😱 Vanna - Feel The Force (IT’S A TRAP!!!)
February 22, 2024

Hey Goonies!

“How do I determine if Volatility is cheap or expensive?”

It’s a question that gets a lot of airtime these days, and rightly so. So what’s the answer?

Well, there are two main considerations for what drives volatility: 

  1. Human perception, in the form of expectations

  2. Actual demand, based on either algorithmic or fundamentally-driven trading

 

These factors, along with trading volume, are ultimately what drives both options and stock prices.

So as a responsible and informed trader, what can you do to equip yourself to navigate these powerful mechanics?

And one step further –  how can you know when a trend might just turn out to be a deadly trap for traders? 

 

This Friday, Brent Kochuba and the team at SpotGamma are hosting a FREE webinar geared to answer this question, and more:

  • How Vanna – The Second-Order, Volatility Greek – influences options trading, how Market Makers hedge their portfolios, PLUS Vanna’s influence in a specific case study from the red hot tech sector

You can register here, right now:

Vanna -- Feel The Force (IT'S A TRAP!!!)

 

Love You Forever,

Thicc Kohrs

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FREE Options Trading Lecture This Friday @ 10am ET

It's all going down THIS FRIDAY!!!

The team at SpotGamma will be joining the MK Show to discuss various options trading strategies. (Yes, it will include 0 DTEs for you degens).

This is 100% FREE options trading education.
All you need to do is be where you normally watch me at 10am ET!

00:00:29
I guess Matt's eating out tonight.
00:00:14
Bonus Content

This is how my boss taunts me before i start an edit

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Monster Moves May || Goonie Newsletter
Goonie Newsletter (May 18th - 22nd)

Monster Moves May

Key Weekly Performance Stats:

  • S&P 500: +0.13%
  • Nasdaq 100: -0.38%
  • Russel 2000: -2.69%
  • Bitcoin: -1.41%

Last week, the market notched a new record high, but it definitely wasn’t smooth sailing. Stocks pushed higher early as the AI trade kept carrying momentum, with the Nasdaq and S&P hanging near record territory for most of the week. Then inflation data hit, yields climbed, and traders started getting nervous about oil again. A lot of that came from the latest Iran headlines after Trump publicly rejected Iran’s response to a proposed peace framework, which immediately pushed crude prices back higher and brought inflation fears right back into focus.

The biggest story was Tuesday’s CPI report, which came in hotter than expected and showed inflation heating back up to 3.8% year over year. Energy prices did a lot of the damage as gas prices surged alongside the Middle East tensions. Wednesday’s PPI report added more fuel to the inflation conversation, while Thursday’s retail sales data showed the consumer is still spending even with prices staying elevated. Earnings were a mixed bag, but AI-related names continued to dominate attention. Cisco impressed investors with stronger AI demand commentary, while Applied Materials helped keep semiconductor momentum alive. Overall, the market still wants to believe in the AI-led rally, but higher yields and rising oil prices are making things more uncomfortable.

Looking ahead to next week, it's a bit lighter on economic data, but there’s still plenty for traders to watch. The FOMC meeting minutes land Wednesday, followed by housing starts, building permits, and S&P Global flash PMI data on Thursday. Earnings season also keeps rolling with reports from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Walmart, and Nvidia, which will probably end up being the biggest event of the week for the broader market. Investors will also keep one eye on any new Trump headlines tied to Iran or China after this week’s geopolitical tension pushed energy markets back into the spotlight. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.

Best,

Thicc Kohrs

P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)

 


 

Earnings

Monday, May 18th

None

Tuesday, May 19th

Morning: Home Depot

Evening: CAVA

Wednesday, May 20th

Morning: Lowe's & Target

Evening: Nvidia

Thursday, May 21st

Morning: John Deere, Nio & Walmart

Evening: WeBull & Zoom

Friday, May 22nd

None

 


 

Market Events

Monday, May 18th

None

 

Tuesday, May 19th

None

 

Wednesday, May 20th

10:30 AM ET    Crude Oil Inventories

02:00 PM ET    Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Thursday, May 21st

08:30 AM ET    Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

08:30 AM ET    Initial Jobless Claim

09:45 AM ET    S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (May)

 

Friday, May 22nd

10:00 AM ET    Consumer Sentiment (May)

10:00 AM ET    US Leading Economic Indicators (Apr)

 


 

Seasonality Update

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, May 18th)

    • Bull Win Percentage: 46%
    • Profit Factor: 1.83
    • Bias: Leaning Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, May 19th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 46%
  • Profit Factor: 0.58
  • Bias: Bearish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, May 20th)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 61%
  • Profit Factor: 1.62
  • Bias: Leaning Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, May 21st)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 36%
  • Profit Factor: 0.37
  • Bias: Bearish

Equity Curve -->

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 22nd)

  • Bull Win Percentage: 46%
  • Profit Factor: 1.29
  • Bias: Leaning Bullish

Equity Curve -->

 

Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.


 

Options Strategy Update

The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 6 times (10 for 12 total units) this past week.

Signal Accuracy: ~83%

Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!

 

Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trades

May Record: 10/12 Units

 

Monday, May 11th

SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $736 / $735) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $708 / $707) 🟢

 

Tuesday, May 12th

SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $738 / $739) 🔴 

QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $711 / $712) 🟢

 

Wednesday, May 13th

No Signal Produced

 

Thursday, May 14th

SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $742 / $741) 🟢

QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $713 / $712) 🟢

 

Friday, May 15th

No Signal Produced

 


 

Diapers Changed

14,887,194 *

* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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Daily Degen Trade Report || TGIF!
Friday, May 15th

TGIF!

THICC RETURN: +$0

If you're curious about what I trade & how I trade, join the Goonie Trading Discord. You can start trading with me today! (Click Here!)

 

Piper's Picks

No Signal Produced

 

You can trade with me by joining the Goonie Discord today! (Click Here!)

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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Daily Degen Trade Report (+$22,800) || How High?!
Thursday, May 14th

How High?!

THICC RETURN: +$22,800

My posted, REAL-TIME TRADES PAID -- Today's trades would have paid for MORE THAN 20 YEARS OF GOONIE MEMBERSHIP!

If you're curious about what I trade & how I trade, join the Goonie Trading Discord. You can start trading with me today! (Click Here!)

 

Piper's Picks

PIPER'S RETURN: +$28

A BULLISH signal, 4/5 strength, was generated around 11:00am ET by Piper. The signal was used with various advanced options strategies to score (don't worry, I'll teach you every aspect of the strategy).Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!

SPY Return: +$12 (+100%) per $188 signal capital requirement

QQQ Return: +$16 (+100%) per $184 signal capital requirement

Total Return: +$28 (+100%) per $372 signal capital requirement

 

Thicc Matt's Personal Trades

Trade One: 4 NDX 29,600 Calls

These calls were were bought at $128/ea and were sold back at $185/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $22,800!!!

 

Trade One Return: +$22,800

Total Return: +$22,800 (before fees)

These trades alone would have paid for MORE THAN TWO DECADES OF GOONIE DISCORD ACCESS! 

 

You can trade with me by joining the Goonie Discord today! (Click Here!)

 


 

Notes

RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.

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