Higher For Longer
Hi,
Well, that was something.
As I'm writing this, I find it odd how much it felt like the market moved this past week vs how much it actually moved. I suppose it could best be summarized as we violently went nowhere.
There were three major things that recently developed to kick off the new quarter. Fed Chair Powell spoke at Stanford and reiterated rates higher for longer and will not budge until inflation comes down even more. This wasn't new news, so the market didn't really react... at first. The following day Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari caused the market to plummet. While being interviewed by CNBC, he stated there might be no rate cuts this year if inflation isn't fixed. This sentiment was quickly echoed by other Fed members. Then, to wrap it all up, the newest Unemployment Report was released on Friday morning. Unemployment came in lower than expected, and more jobs were added than expected. This strength did nothing but increase the Fed's steadfastness in the hawkish regime.
So, where does that leave us? In my opinion, we are at the start of a new period of higher volatility. This upcoming week will contain various inflation reports (CPI & PPI), numerous Fed speeches, and a few Treasury updates. To make things even more spicy, Earnings Season starts this Friday. All the pertinent details are below.
Stick to your plan. Stay disciplined. Godspeed.
Peace,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Apr. 8th
01:00 PM ET Chicago Fed President Austan Gollsbee Radio Interview
Tuesday, Apr. 9th
None
Wednesday, Apr. 10th
08:30 AM ET CPI (YoY) (Mar)
08:30 AM ET CPI (MoM) (Mar)
10:00 AM ET Wholesale Inventories
12:00 PM ET Boston Fed President Susan Collins Speaks
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
02:00 PM ET Monthly US Federal Budget
Thursday, Apr. 11th
08:15 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision
08:30 AM ET PPI (YoY) (Mar)
08:30 AM ET PPI (MoM) (Mar)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:45 AM ET ECB Press Conference
12:45 PM ET Chicago Fed President Austan Gollsbee Speaks
01:30 PM ET Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks
Friday, Apr. 12th
02:30 PM ET Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks
03:30 PM ET San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speaks
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
None
Tuesday
Morning: Tilray
Wednesday
Morning: Delta
Thursday
Morning: CarMax
Friday
Morning: BlackRock, Citi, JPMorgan & Wells Fargo
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Apr. 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 3.71
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Apr. 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.16
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Apr. 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 0.52
- Bias:
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Apr. 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 1.31
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Apr. 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.54
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 8 times (11 for 15 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~75%
We are back on track! Piper is slowly but surely recovering to trading at expectations. Onward and upward, brother!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 2 Trades
April Record: 11/15 Units
Monday Apr. 1st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $525 / $526) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $448 / $449) 🟢
Tuesday Apr. 2nd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $519 / $520) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $441 / $442) 🟢
Wednesday Apr. 3rd
No Signal Produced
Thursday Apr. 4th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $521 / $520) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $444 / $443) 🔴
Friday Apr. 5th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $513 / $512) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $435 / $434) 🟢
Boxes of Mac & Cheese Consumed
14.2 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
