Buckle Up, Buttercup!
Greetings,
What a week we had! The bull camp decided to start fighting back in force. The increased volatility prompted a lot of tradable opportunities. I hope you got yours!
As expected, we now definitively know the Fed is keeping rates higher for longer. Wednesday's FOMC meeting made a few key concepts evident. Inflation is not dropping as fast as it previously was, but Powell and his gang feel that they have the situation under control. It was announced that the balance sheet normalization process is slowing down. This slight decrease in hawkish aggression was received well by the market. Most importantly in my humble opinion, Powell clearly and concisely stated they are not moving their target off the 2% inflation goal. The Fed is more than willing to keep rates unchanged this entire year if needed.
Don't forget! Beyond all the macroeconomic developments, we are still in earnings season. A considerable number of "popular" stocks reacted well to their company's report. The tech sector is now specifically looking strong. Names such as AAPL, META, NFLX, NVDA & TSLA are all looking bullish just to name a few. The upcoming week will be an exciting one with a lot of opportunity. Godspeed.
All the key information is posted below -- Enjoy!
Message Over,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, May 6th
12:50 PM ET Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks
06:00 PM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
Tuesday, May 7th
11:30 AM ET Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Speaks
03:00 PM ET Consumer Credit
Wednesday, May 8th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
11:45 AM ET Boston Fed President Susan Collins Speaks
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
01:30 PM ET Fed Gov. Cook Speaks
Thursday, May 9th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
02:00 PM ET San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speaks
Friday, May 10th
09:00 AM ET Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
12:45 PM ET Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speaks
02:00 PM ET Monthly US Federal Budget
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
Morning: Spirit
Evening: Lucid & Palantir
Tuesday
Morning: BP, Celsius, Crocs & Disney
Evening: Lyft, Oxy, Twilio, Upstart & Wynn
Wednesday
Morning: Affirm, Shopify, Toyota & Uber
Evening: Airbnb, AMC & Robinhood
Thursday
Morning: Plug & Roblox
Evening: Unity
Friday
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, May 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.48
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, May 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.24
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, May 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.96
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, May 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.82
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 0.50
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 8 times (10 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~62.5%
In my opinion, Piper's signal slightly underperformed last week. There is a decent argument this only happened because no indication was produced on Monday. I don't believe any updates or alterations are needed at this moment in time. I need more out-of-sample data to know if Piper is getting hit by variance. We will know the definitive answer soon enough.
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trades
April Record: 47/58 Units
May Record: 10/12 Units
Monday Apr. 29th
No Signal Generated
Tuesday Apr. 30th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $507 / $506) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $430 / $429) 🔴
Wednesday May 1st
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $502 / $503) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $424 / $425) 🟢
Thursday May 2nd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $505 / $506) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $426 / $427) 🔴
Friday May 3rd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $508 / $507) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $432 / $431) 🟢
God Tier Real-Time Predictions
1 * (Low count, but I'm still really proud about it)
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
