Round & Round We Go!!!
Howdy,
In darkness, we found light!
The shortened trading week was notably bearish. Well, that was true until the final hour. The entire trading week was defined by lower highs and lower lows -- A classic downward trend. The bears dominated until Friday's power hour. We may never know exactly why, but prcies finally got low enough for the market to buy the dip and with massive size. I hope you caught both sides of the trade, or at minimum, avoided the whipsaw.
Looking ahead, I'm very excited. After months of quietness, volatility is finally returning to the system. This means there should be an abundance of opportunity. Volatility is on the rise, political turmoil is at a new level, and we have myriad on macroeconomic reports on deck. If you're on the correct side, large windfalls could easily be in your near future.
It should go without saying, but you don't need to be oversized to make good money. Your number one priority as a trader is to manage your risk. As ranges increase, you must be even more mindful of your risk. You may not believe me, but I promise you your profits will take care of themselves. The people who serve the gauntlet that is trading are the people who never let a singular trade put them in risk of ending their career. You should be in this game for the law of large numbers. You need to survive long enough to see your edge crystalize -- Never forget that!
All the pertinent information for the upcoming week is detailed below. Godspeed.
Stay Liquid,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, June 3rd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (May)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)
Tuesday, June 4th
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)
Wednesday, June 5th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Services PMI (May)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (May)
Thursday, June 6th
08:30 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision (June)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET ECB Press Conference
Friday, June 7th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (May)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
08:30 AM ET Avg. Hour Earnings (MoM) (May)
03:00 PM ET Consumer Credit (May)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
Evening: GitLab
Tuesday
Morning: Bath & Body Works
Evening: CrowdStrike
Wednesday
Morning: Dollar Tre
Evening: ChargePoint, Five Below & Lululemon
Thursday
Morning: Nio
Evening: DocuSign
Friday
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, June 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 76%
- Profit Factor: 1.27
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, June 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 80%
- Profit Factor: 14.53
- Bias: VERY BULLISH
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, June 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.69
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, June 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.79
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, June 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 1.94
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 7 for 8 times (12 for 13 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~87.5%
Close, but no cigar! Piper was 1 hour away from having a perfect week. The power hour push tilted Piper's SPY prediction. Beyond that, Piper was dominant. It's a bit of a slow burn, but the new premium scalping strategy is coming along nicely. The last two weeks have come along swimmingly. I'm happy with the current trajectory. When it's finalized, I'll start reporting the results within the newsletter.
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 1 Trades
May Record: 48/53 Units
Monday May 27th
Market Closed
Tuesday May 28th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $528 / $527) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $456 / $455) 🟢
Wednesday May 29th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $528 / $529) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $459 / $460) 🟢
Thursday May 30th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $526 / $527) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $456 / $457) 🟢
Friday May 31st
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $526 / $527) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $453 / $454) 🟢
Bouts of Crying on The Stair Stepper
36 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
