Don't @ Me, Bro
Fellow Degens,
In case you missed it, I was fortunate to have my best trade of the entire year this past week. I wrote a specialty newsletter to breakdown how I made a $50,000 trade -->
https://mattkohrs.locals.com/post/5880006/lfg-50-000-join-the-goonie-trading-discord-for-free
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.96% (New High)
- Nasdaq 100: -3.96%
- Russel 2000: +1.74%
- Bitcoin: +15.19%
I know it's strange to say this because the S&P 500 hit another new all-time high, but the market is finally taking a breather. All three of the major indexes, the SPY, QQQ & IWM, sold off into the conclusion of the week. In my honest opinion, this will eventually represent an amazing bullish swing opportunity. It's a tough prediction to callout when the bottom will occur, so extreme patience is a must. Have the discipline to wait for the selling aggression to stop and for buying aggression to start. This might not be your preferred methodology, but I'm a fan of waiting for the first close above the previous high to suggest a changing of the tides.
The market dynamic is clearly changing -- I'm more confident of that since we started discussing the concept two weeks ago. The Fed has made enough progress on inflation that a rate cut is all but imminent in September. This makes me highly interested in joining the bull camp on IWM & KRE. Small caps, especially smaller banks, should theoretically benefit from cheaper capital. As the remainder of July playouts out, I will be watching these potential plays like a hawk.
In a different corner of the market, crypto is starting to pump. My best estimation is that this is happening because the Mt. Gox situation is priced in, Germany has concluded its Bitcoin sale, and the likely next US President is clearly a crypto supporter. Bitcoin, and other correlated plays such as Coinbase, posted a phenomenal week. The sector is worth a place on your watchlist.
Your expectation should be nothing but fireworks over the new few weeks. There are fun times on the horizon. Be disciplined, stick to your plan, and trade what the market gives you. Godspeed.
Later Skater,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, July 22nd
None
Tuesday, July 23rd
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Jun)
01:00 PM ET 2-Year Bond Auction
Wednesday, July 24th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Jun)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 5-Year Bond Auction
Thursday, July 25th
08:30 AM ET GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (June)
01:00 PM ET 7-Year Bond Auction
Friday, July 26th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index
08:30 AM ET Personal Spending (Jun)
08:30 AM ET Personal Income (Jun)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, July 22nd
Morning: Verizon
Evening: SAP
Tuesday, July 23rd
Morning: Coca Cola, Comcast, GE, GM, Spotify & UPS
Evening: Alphabet, Capital One, Tesla & Visa
Wednesday, July 24th
Morning: AT&T
Evening: Chipotle, IBM & Ford
Thursday, July 25th
Morning: American Airlines & Southwest
Evening: Texas Roadhouse
Friday, July 26th
Morning: 3M
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, July 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 1.19
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, July 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.78
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.14
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 1.21
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 1.27
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 7 for 10 times (18 for 24 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~70%
Piper had a rough week. If the underperformance continues, I'll rework to the system to better reflect the current market conditions. There is a chance the results were simply caused by bad luck. I'll be watching closely over the next couple weeks to determine if anything should be updated. Stay tuned!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 2 Trades
July Record: 49/61 Units
Monday July 15th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $561 / $560) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $495 / $494) 🟢
Tuesday July 16th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $564 / $565) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $499 / $500) 🟢
Wednesday July 17th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $561 / $562) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $489 / $490) 🟢
Thursday July 18th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $557 / $556) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $481 / $480) 🔴
Friday July 19th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $555 / $556) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $482 / $483) 🟢
Historic Trades Made
1 (Let the history books know!) *
This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
