'Tis The Season
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.58%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.77%
- Russel 2000: -2.80%
- Bitcoin: +1.51%
Last week, the overall market exhibited mixed performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs fueled by strong tech sector gains. In contrast, the Dow was weighed down by weak performance in health and energy sectors. November's labor market data showed 227,000 jobs added, slightly exceeding expectations, though the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting broader economic adjustments.
Inflation data dominated economic discussions, with November's CPI revealing a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, which was slightly up from October. Core inflation held steady at 3.3%, indicating persistent but contained pricing pressures. This data solidified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting, with a 99% probability of a quarter-point reduction being priced in.
Looking ahead, attention will focus on the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting next week. Beyond the expected 25bps cut, there will be a large emphasis on Chair Powell's commentary. Additionally, housing market data, consumer spending trends, and corporate earnings updates will play a significant role in shaping market sentiment. As always, stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, December 16th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Tuesday, December 17th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov)
01:00 PM ET 20-Year Bond Auction
Wednesday, December 18th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM &YoY (Nov)
02:00 PM ET FOMC Interest Rate Decision
02:30 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thursday, December 19th
08:30 AM ET GDP Q3 (2nd Reading)
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Exisiting Home Sales (Nov)
08:30 AM ET US Leading Economic Indicators (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 5-Year TIPS Auction
Friday, December 20th
08:30 AM ET PCE Idex MoM & YoY (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Personal Spending & Income (Nov)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, December 16th
None
Tuesday, December 17th
None
Wednesday, December 18th
Morning: General Mills
Evening: Micron
Thursday, December 19th
Morning: Darden Restaurants
Evening: Blackberry, FedEx & Nike
Friday, December 20th
Morning: Carnival
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, December 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 2.48
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, December 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.36
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, December 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 0.61
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, December 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.59
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, December 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.73
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 8 times (12 for 18 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~62.5%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 1 Trades
December Record: 26/32 Units
Monday, December 9th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $608 / $609) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $527 / $528) 🟢
Tuesday, December 10th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $604 / $603) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $522 / $521) 🔴
Wednesday, December 11th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $605 / $604) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $524 / $523) 🟢
Thursday, December 12th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $605 / $604) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $525 / $524) 🟢
Friday, December 13th
No Signal Produced
Times I Was Suppose To Have Potential
18 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
