The Stock Market Crash
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -9.11%
- Nasdaq 100: -9.87%
- Russel 2000: -9.61%
- Bitcoin: -0.62%
Last week, the economy and stock market threw a tantrum that would make a Piper proud. It all started innocently enough, but there was an underlying sense of tension. Then, like a plot twist in a bad sitcom, President Trump unleashed his "Liberation Day" tariff bomb on April 3rd—slapping 10% on all imports, 34% on China, and a spicy 46% on Vietnam, with Europe and Japan getting a 20%+ side-eye (just to name a few). The S&P 500 promptly face-planted nearly 5%, shedding $2.4 trillion in the blink of an eye. In fact, this marked the worst day since 2020.
The chaos didn’t stop there! Friday brought even more drama. China retaliated with a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, because why not escalate a good old-fashioned economic slap fight? The Dow took a 2,200-point nosedive, and the Nasdaq cratered as recession fears clearly spiked. A semi-bright spot? The U.S. jobs report showed solid hiring, but consumer spending was weak, and sentiment hit a 12-year low. The Fed, watching this mess unfold, stuck to its 4.25%-4.50% rate range, with Powell basically shrugging and saying, “Let’s wait and see,” while Trump insisted everything would be fine. Spoiler: Wall Street wasn’t laughing.
Last ahead, brace yourself for more volatility. Keep an eye on both the CPI & PPI inflation data. The Michigan Sentiment Survey might reveal if Americans are truly concerned or are they taking everything in stride. With tariffs still rattling cages and the Fed playing coy, it’s anyone’s guess whether stocks will rebound or keep plummeting. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, April 7th
Evening: Dave & Buster's
Tuesday, April 8th
Morning: Tilray
Wednesday, April 9th
Morning: Delta
Thursday, April 10th
Morning: CarMax
Friday, April 11th
Morning: BlackRock, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley & Wells Fargo
Market Events
Monday, April 7th
03:00 PM ET Consumer Credit
Tuesday, April 8th
08:00 AM ET San Francisco Fed President Daly Speaks
Wednesday, April 9th
11:00 AM ET Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, April 10th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Mar)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
Friday, April 11th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Mar)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Apr)
11:00 AM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, April 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 37%
- Profit Factor: 0.74
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, April 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 2.96
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, April 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.16
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, April 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.39
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, April 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.83
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (12 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 16 Trades
March Record: 66/76 Units
April Record: 6/6 Units
Monday, March 31st
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $546 / $545) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $456 / $455) 🟢
Tuesday, April 1st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $552 / $551) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $463 / $462) 🟢
Wednesday, April 2nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $554 / $553) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $465 / $464) 🟢
Thursday, April 3rd
No Signal Produced
Friday, April 4th
No Signal Produced
Times I Bought The Dip And It Kept Dipping
42 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
